**Recent polling trends strongly favor Die Linke over Die Grünen for more votes in Berlin’s September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election.** Aggregated surveys place Linke at roughly 19–20% and Grüne at 16–17%, a gap that has held or widened in recent months. Linke has risen sharply from its 12.2% result in 2023, driven by gains on housing and social issues, while Grüne have remained near or slightly below their prior 18.4% share. Linke’s membership has grown to become Berlin’s largest party, and its lead candidate Elif Eralp benefits from this momentum. Grüne support has shown limited movement despite coalition speculation. The current four-way contest among Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne leaves outcomes tight overall, but the consistent two- to four-point Linke advantage in nearly every recent survey underpins the market’s strong implied probability for Linke finishing ahead on vote share. No major late developments have altered this positioning in the final weeks before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于左翼党
83% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-20
左翼党
83% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-20
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polling trends strongly favor Die Linke over Die Grünen for more votes in Berlin’s September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election.** Aggregated surveys place Linke at roughly 19–20% and Grüne at 16–17%, a gap that has held or widened in recent months. Linke has risen sharply from its 12.2% result in 2023, driven by gains on housing and social issues, while Grüne have remained near or slightly below their prior 18.4% share.
Linke’s membership has grown to become Berlin’s largest party, and its lead candidate Elif Eralp benefits from this momentum. Grüne support has shown limited movement despite coalition speculation. The current four-way contest among Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne leaves outcomes tight overall, but the consistent two- to four-point Linke advantage in nearly every recent survey underpins the market’s strong implied probability for Linke finishing ahead on vote share. No major late developments have altered this positioning in the final weeks before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
交易量
$1,440结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polling trends strongly favor Die Linke over Die Grünen for more votes in Berlin’s September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election.** Aggregated surveys place Linke at roughly 19–20% and Grüne at 16–17%, a gap that has held or widened in recent months. Linke has risen sharply from its 12.2% result in 2023, driven by gains on housing and social issues, while Grüne have remained near or slightly below their prior 18.4% share.
Linke’s membership has grown to become Berlin’s largest party, and its lead candidate Elif Eralp benefits from this momentum. Grüne support has shown limited movement despite coalition speculation. The current four-way contest among Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne leaves outcomes tight overall, but the consistent two- to four-point Linke advantage in nearly every recent survey underpins the market’s strong implied probability for Linke finishing ahead on vote share. No major late developments have altered this positioning in the final weeks before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$1,440结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling trends strongly favor Die Linke over Die Grünen for more votes in Berlin’s September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election.** Aggregated surveys place Linke at roughly 19–20% and Grüne at 16–17%, a gap that has held or widened in recent months. Linke has risen sharply from its 12.2% result in 2023, driven by gains on housing and social issues, while Grüne have remained near or slightly below their prior 18.4% share. Linke’s membership has grown to become Berlin’s largest party, and its lead candidate Elif Eralp benefits from this momentum. Grüne support has shown limited movement despite coalition speculation. The current four-way contest among Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne leaves outcomes tight overall, but the consistent two- to four-point Linke advantage in nearly every recent survey underpins the market’s strong implied probability for Linke finishing ahead on vote share. No major late developments have altered this positioning in the final weeks before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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