Blue Origin’s May 28, 2026, New Glenn explosion during a static-fire test at Cape Canaveral’s LC-36 destroyed the vehicle and heavily damaged key pad infrastructure, including the lightning tower and transporter-erector. Although CEO Dave Limp has maintained an end-of-2026 return-to-flight target by shifting to a faster horizontal/vertical hybrid concept of operations and preserving propellant tanks, the scale of reconstruction, new procedures, and engine-valve fixes still demand extensive testing and validation. With only four months remaining in the year and no successful flights since April, traders view the compressed schedule as unrealistic, producing the strong 88.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 launch.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
12% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
12% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.Blue Origin’s May 28, 2026, New Glenn explosion during a static-fire test at Cape Canaveral’s LC-36 destroyed the vehicle and heavily damaged key pad infrastructure, including the lightning tower and transporter-erector. Although CEO Dave Limp has maintained an end-of-2026 return-to-flight target by shifting to a faster horizontal/vertical hybrid concept of operations and preserving propellant tanks, the scale of reconstruction, new procedures, and engine-valve fixes still demand extensive testing and validation. With only four months remaining in the year and no successful flights since April, traders view the compressed schedule as unrealistic, producing the strong 88.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 launch.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
市场开放时间： Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
交易量
$1,417结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETIf any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.Blue Origin’s May 28, 2026, New Glenn explosion during a static-fire test at Cape Canaveral’s LC-36 destroyed the vehicle and heavily damaged key pad infrastructure, including the lightning tower and transporter-erector. Although CEO Dave Limp has maintained an end-of-2026 return-to-flight target by shifting to a faster horizontal/vertical hybrid concept of operations and preserving propellant tanks, the scale of reconstruction, new procedures, and engine-valve fixes still demand extensive testing and validation. With only four months remaining in the year and no successful flights since April, traders view the compressed schedule as unrealistic, producing the strong 88.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 launch.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
交易量
$1,417结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETBlue Origin’s May 28, 2026, New Glenn explosion during a static-fire test at Cape Canaveral’s LC-36 destroyed the vehicle and heavily damaged key pad infrastructure, including the lightning tower and transporter-erector. Although CEO Dave Limp has maintained an end-of-2026 return-to-flight target by shifting to a faster horizontal/vertical hybrid concept of operations and preserving propellant tanks, the scale of reconstruction, new procedures, and engine-valve fixes still demand extensive testing and validation. With only four months remaining in the year and no successful flights since April, traders view the compressed schedule as unrealistic, producing the strong 88.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 launch.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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