The tightly bunched Polymarket prices around 41–45.5% reflect a wide-open contest for third in Série B 2026 after 25 rounds, where mid-table sides such as Sport, Náutico, Cuiabá, Avaí and São Bernardo sit within a handful of points of each other and the playoff threshold. Recent results have produced little separation: CRB’s win over Criciúma, Vila Nova’s shutout of Ceará and Cuiabá’s victory at Botafogo-SP illustrate how form swings can quickly reorder the group chasing third through sixth. With 13 matches left, remaining schedule difficulty, home/away splits and squad depth will continue to compress probabilities across this pack, as no single contender has established consistent separation from the rest.