Official KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station—the market's resolution source—recorded a peak temperature of 18°C early afternoon on May 4, 2026, amid heavy cloud cover, moderate rain showers, and weak westerly winds that limited solar heating to just 10% sunshine. This aligns precisely with pre-event consensus from HARMONIE and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting highs of 17–19°C under a cool maritime air mass from a low-pressure system over northern Europe, consistent with early May climatology averaging 16°C maxima. Trader-implied odds at virtually 100% for 18°C reflect this strong evidentiary support, with final KNMI daily data expected post-midnight; rare data revisions or unforecasted late clearing could challenge it, though improbable given observed persistence of overcast conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 4?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 4?
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$78,877 交易量
$78,877 交易量
2026-05-04
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$78,877 交易量
$78,877 交易量
2026-05-04
12°C or below
$1,439 交易量
No
13°C
$763 交易量
No
14°C
$2,325 交易量
No
15°C
$5,278 交易量
No
16°C
$7,180 交易量
No
17°C
$9,108 交易量
No
18°C
$15,887 交易量
Yes
19°C
$18,171 交易量
No
20°C
$8,512 交易量
No
21°C
$7,570 交易量
No
22°C or higher
$2,642 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station—the market's resolution source—recorded a peak temperature of 18°C early afternoon on May 4, 2026, amid heavy cloud cover, moderate rain showers, and weak westerly winds that limited solar heating to just 10% sunshine. This aligns precisely with pre-event consensus from HARMONIE and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting highs of 17–19°C under a cool maritime air mass from a low-pressure system over northern Europe, consistent with early May climatology averaging 16°C maxima. Trader-implied odds at virtually 100% for 18°C reflect this strong evidentiary support, with final KNMI daily data expected post-midnight; rare data revisions or unforecasted late clearing could challenge it, though improbable given observed persistence of overcast conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
交易量
$78,877结束日期
2026-05-04市场开放时间
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station—the market's resolution source—recorded a peak temperature of 18°C early afternoon on May 4, 2026, amid heavy cloud cover, moderate rain showers, and weak westerly winds that limited solar heating to just 10% sunshine. This aligns precisely with pre-event consensus from HARMONIE and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting highs of 17–19°C under a cool maritime air mass from a low-pressure system over northern Europe, consistent with early May climatology averaging 16°C maxima. Trader-implied odds at virtually 100% for 18°C reflect this strong evidentiary support, with final KNMI daily data expected post-midnight; rare data revisions or unforecasted late clearing could challenge it, though improbable given observed persistence of overcast conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$78,877结束日期
2026-05-04市场开放时间
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Official KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station—the market's resolution source—recorded a peak temperature of 18°C early afternoon on May 4, 2026, amid heavy cloud cover, moderate rain showers, and weak westerly winds that limited solar heating to just 10% sunshine. This aligns precisely with pre-event consensus from HARMONIE and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting highs of 17–19°C under a cool maritime air mass from a low-pressure system over northern Europe, consistent with early May climatology averaging 16°C maxima. Trader-implied odds at virtually 100% for 18°C reflect this strong evidentiary support, with final KNMI daily data expected post-midnight; rare data revisions or unforecasted late clearing could challenge it, though improbable given observed persistence of overcast conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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