Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 32°C high in Guangzhou on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport station— the market's official resolution source under China Meteorological Administration protocols—recording a peak of 32°C during early afternoon amid persistent cloud cover and 70-80% humidity that sharply limited solar insolation and convective heating. This aligns with updated ECMWF and local forecast models projecting a cap at 32-33°C following a week-long cool spell with prior highs of 27-31°C, below May climatological averages of 29-30°C. Diurnal cooling has set in with evening readings dropping to 30°C under overcast skies, making further spikes unlikely; realistic challenges include brief clearing allowing a 1°C surge before sunset, though current atmospheric stability and declining solar angle render this improbable, with final CMA data expected post-midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 12?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 12?
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$38,335 交易量
$38,335 交易量
2026-05-12
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$38,335 交易量
$38,335 交易量
2026-05-12
26°C or below
$959 交易量
No
27°C
$885 交易量
No
28°C
$2,007 交易量
No
29°C
$2,019 交易量
No
30°C
$2,043 交易量
No
31°C
$4,954 交易量
No
32°C
$6,862 交易量
Yes
33°C
$3,525 交易量
No
34°C
$3,363 交易量
No
35°C
$6,837 交易量
No
36°C or higher
$4,880 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 32°C high in Guangzhou on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport station— the market's official resolution source under China Meteorological Administration protocols—recording a peak of 32°C during early afternoon amid persistent cloud cover and 70-80% humidity that sharply limited solar insolation and convective heating. This aligns with updated ECMWF and local forecast models projecting a cap at 32-33°C following a week-long cool spell with prior highs of 27-31°C, below May climatological averages of 29-30°C. Diurnal cooling has set in with evening readings dropping to 30°C under overcast skies, making further spikes unlikely; realistic challenges include brief clearing allowing a 1°C surge before sunset, though current atmospheric stability and declining solar angle render this improbable, with final CMA data expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 10, 2026, 12:25 AM ET
交易量
$38,335结束日期
2026-05-12市场开放时间
May 10, 2026, 12:25 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 32°C high in Guangzhou on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport station— the market's official resolution source under China Meteorological Administration protocols—recording a peak of 32°C during early afternoon amid persistent cloud cover and 70-80% humidity that sharply limited solar insolation and convective heating. This aligns with updated ECMWF and local forecast models projecting a cap at 32-33°C following a week-long cool spell with prior highs of 27-31°C, below May climatological averages of 29-30°C. Diurnal cooling has set in with evening readings dropping to 30°C under overcast skies, making further spikes unlikely; realistic challenges include brief clearing allowing a 1°C surge before sunset, though current atmospheric stability and declining solar angle render this improbable, with final CMA data expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$38,335结束日期
2026-05-12市场开放时间
May 10, 2026, 12:25 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 32°C high in Guangzhou on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport station— the market's official resolution source under China Meteorological Administration protocols—recording a peak of 32°C during early afternoon amid persistent cloud cover and 70-80% humidity that sharply limited solar insolation and convective heating. This aligns with updated ECMWF and local forecast models projecting a cap at 32-33°C following a week-long cool spell with prior highs of 27-31°C, below May climatological averages of 29-30°C. Diurnal cooling has set in with evening readings dropping to 30°C under overcast skies, making further spikes unlikely; realistic challenges include brief clearing allowing a 1°C surge before sunset, though current atmospheric stability and declining solar angle render this improbable, with final CMA data expected post-midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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