Traders see the 23–25°C outcomes clustered near 35–38% as the most probable for Tokyo’s July 28 minimum because official JMA guidance and ensemble models place the expected overnight low near the long-term July average of 23–24°C under cloudy skies and scattered showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping temperatures from dropping sharply while preventing the warmer extremes that would require strong southerly flow or clearing. Model spreads remain modest two days out, producing the tight probability band reflected in the market; any shift in the 48-hour forecast toward more persistent rain or stronger winds could tilt the distribution toward 22°C or 26°C, but current guidance shows no such signal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7月28日东京最低气温？
7月28日东京最低气温？
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$16,736 交易量
$16,736 交易量
2026-07-28
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$16,736 交易量
$16,736 交易量
2026-07-28
19°C or below
$451 交易量
No
20°C
$481 交易量
No
21°C
$555 交易量
No
22°C
$520 交易量
No
23°C
$4,735 交易量
Yes
24°C
$2,630 交易量
No
25°C
$5,687 交易量
No
26°C
$247 交易量
No
27°C
$545 交易量
No
28°C
$610 交易量
No
29°C or higher
$275 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 23–25°C outcomes clustered near 35–38% as the most probable for Tokyo’s July 28 minimum because official JMA guidance and ensemble models place the expected overnight low near the long-term July average of 23–24°C under cloudy skies and scattered showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping temperatures from dropping sharply while preventing the warmer extremes that would require strong southerly flow or clearing. Model spreads remain modest two days out, producing the tight probability band reflected in the market; any shift in the 48-hour forecast toward more persistent rain or stronger winds could tilt the distribution toward 22°C or 26°C, but current guidance shows no such signal.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 26, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
交易量
$16,736结束日期
2026-07-28市场开放时间
Jul 26, 2026, 6:30 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 23–25°C outcomes clustered near 35–38% as the most probable for Tokyo’s July 28 minimum because official JMA guidance and ensemble models place the expected overnight low near the long-term July average of 23–24°C under cloudy skies and scattered showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping temperatures from dropping sharply while preventing the warmer extremes that would require strong southerly flow or clearing. Model spreads remain modest two days out, producing the tight probability band reflected in the market; any shift in the 48-hour forecast toward more persistent rain or stronger winds could tilt the distribution toward 22°C or 26°C, but current guidance shows no such signal.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$16,736结束日期
2026-07-28市场开放时间
Jul 26, 2026, 6:30 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Traders see the 23–25°C outcomes clustered near 35–38% as the most probable for Tokyo’s July 28 minimum because official JMA guidance and ensemble models place the expected overnight low near the long-term July average of 23–24°C under cloudy skies and scattered showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping temperatures from dropping sharply while preventing the warmer extremes that would require strong southerly flow or clearing. Model spreads remain modest two days out, producing the tight probability band reflected in the market; any shift in the 48-hour forecast toward more persistent rain or stronger winds could tilt the distribution toward 22°C or 26°C, but current guidance shows no such signal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题