Traders assign roughly equal weight to 28°C and 29°C maxima for Hong Kong on August 4 because short-range model guidance and Hong Kong Observatory outlooks currently favor partly cloudy conditions with showers that limit afternoon solar heating. Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and scattered convective activity are expected to cap temperatures near or slightly below the 31–32 °C August climatological average. Ensemble runs show modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing, keeping the 30 °C threshold plausible but less likely. Updated HKO daily forecasts and refined high-resolution model output over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月4日香港气温最高？
8月4日香港气温最高？
28°C 33%
29°C 32%
30°C 19%
27°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
12%
28°C
33%
29°C
32%
30°C
19%
31°C
6%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
1%
28°C 33%
29°C 32%
30°C 19%
27°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
23°C or below
$627 交易量
<1%
24°C
$637 交易量
<1%
25°C
$306 交易量
<1%
26°C
$1,615 交易量
2%
27°C
$675 交易量
12%
28°C
$2,109 交易量
33%
29°C
$425 交易量
32%
30°C
$809 交易量
19%
31°C
$555 交易量
6%
32°C
$528 交易量
3%
33°C or higher
$431 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign roughly equal weight to 28°C and 29°C maxima for Hong Kong on August 4 because short-range model guidance and Hong Kong Observatory outlooks currently favor partly cloudy conditions with showers that limit afternoon solar heating. Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and scattered convective activity are expected to cap temperatures near or slightly below the 31–32 °C August climatological average. Ensemble runs show modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing, keeping the 30 °C threshold plausible but less likely. Updated HKO daily forecasts and refined high-resolution model output over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$8,717结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign roughly equal weight to 28°C and 29°C maxima for Hong Kong on August 4 because short-range model guidance and Hong Kong Observatory outlooks currently favor partly cloudy conditions with showers that limit afternoon solar heating. Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and scattered convective activity are expected to cap temperatures near or slightly below the 31–32 °C August climatological average. Ensemble runs show modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing, keeping the 30 °C threshold plausible but less likely. Updated HKO daily forecasts and refined high-resolution model output over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$8,717结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign roughly equal weight to 28°C and 29°C maxima for Hong Kong on August 4 because short-range model guidance and Hong Kong Observatory outlooks currently favor partly cloudy conditions with showers that limit afternoon solar heating. Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and scattered convective activity are expected to cap temperatures near or slightly below the 31–32 °C August climatological average. Ensemble runs show modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing, keeping the 30 °C threshold plausible but less likely. Updated HKO daily forecasts and refined high-resolution model output over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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