Recent JMA forecasts indicate cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 3, 2026, which are expected to limit daytime heating and keep the maximum temperature near or slightly below the early-August normal of 31.8 °C. This outlook, combined with model consensus showing highs in the mid-to-upper 20s °C, underpins trader preference for the 26–28 °C range that currently holds roughly 87 % combined implied probability. Persistent humidity and the absence of strong insolation or warm-air advection further cap upside potential, while the low probabilities assigned to 29 °C and above reflect limited scope for rapid clearing or intensification before the market resolves. Updated short-range guidance and any last-minute changes in cloud cover remain the key near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月3日东京气温最高？
8月3日东京气温最高？
27°C 38%
26°C 25%
28°C 25%
29°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-03
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
25%
27°C
38%
28°C
25%
29°C
9%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
27°C 38%
26°C 25%
28°C 25%
29°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-03
22°C or below
$239 交易量
1%
23°C
$264 交易量
1%
24°C
$704 交易量
2%
25°C
$82 交易量
6%
26°C
$346 交易量
25%
27°C
$677 交易量
38%
28°C
$89 交易量
25%
29°C
$78 交易量
9%
30°C
$106 交易量
4%
31°C
$216 交易量
1%
32°C or higher
$144 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA forecasts indicate cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 3, 2026, which are expected to limit daytime heating and keep the maximum temperature near or slightly below the early-August normal of 31.8 °C. This outlook, combined with model consensus showing highs in the mid-to-upper 20s °C, underpins trader preference for the 26–28 °C range that currently holds roughly 87 % combined implied probability. Persistent humidity and the absence of strong insolation or warm-air advection further cap upside potential, while the low probabilities assigned to 29 °C and above reflect limited scope for rapid clearing or intensification before the market resolves. Updated short-range guidance and any last-minute changes in cloud cover remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$2,945结束日期
2026-08-03市场开放时间
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA forecasts indicate cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 3, 2026, which are expected to limit daytime heating and keep the maximum temperature near or slightly below the early-August normal of 31.8 °C. This outlook, combined with model consensus showing highs in the mid-to-upper 20s °C, underpins trader preference for the 26–28 °C range that currently holds roughly 87 % combined implied probability. Persistent humidity and the absence of strong insolation or warm-air advection further cap upside potential, while the low probabilities assigned to 29 °C and above reflect limited scope for rapid clearing or intensification before the market resolves. Updated short-range guidance and any last-minute changes in cloud cover remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,945结束日期
2026-08-03市场开放时间
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETRecent JMA forecasts indicate cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 3, 2026, which are expected to limit daytime heating and keep the maximum temperature near or slightly below the early-August normal of 31.8 °C. This outlook, combined with model consensus showing highs in the mid-to-upper 20s °C, underpins trader preference for the 26–28 °C range that currently holds roughly 87 % combined implied probability. Persistent humidity and the absence of strong insolation or warm-air advection further cap upside potential, while the low probabilities assigned to 29 °C and above reflect limited scope for rapid clearing or intensification before the market resolves. Updated short-range guidance and any last-minute changes in cloud cover remain the key near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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