Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 27°C on May 3, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration's Baiyun station and supporting data from global models like ECMWF. Persistent cloud cover, showers, and high humidity—hallmarks of early May's transitional monsoon onset—suppressed daytime solar heating, with hourly readings peaking near 27°C amid overcast skies, aligning below the historical May average high of 29°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game certainty from real-time meteorological data, though minimal scenarios like a late-afternoon clearing and rapid insolation could challenge it if unvalidated station logs show a 0.5°C rounding discrepancy before final CMA validation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 3?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 3?
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$50,523 交易量
$50,523 交易量
2026-05-03
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$50,523 交易量
$50,523 交易量
2026-05-03
23°C or below
$2,172 交易量
No
24°C
$2,162 交易量
No
25°C
$3,156 交易量
No
26°C
$10,458 交易量
No
27°C
$4,566 交易量
Yes
28°C
$5,228 交易量
No
29°C
$4,317 交易量
No
30°C
$4,359 交易量
No
31°C
$3,622 交易量
No
32°C
$4,910 交易量
No
33°C or higher
$5,573 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 27°C on May 3, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration's Baiyun station and supporting data from global models like ECMWF. Persistent cloud cover, showers, and high humidity—hallmarks of early May's transitional monsoon onset—suppressed daytime solar heating, with hourly readings peaking near 27°C amid overcast skies, aligning below the historical May average high of 29°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game certainty from real-time meteorological data, though minimal scenarios like a late-afternoon clearing and rapid insolation could challenge it if unvalidated station logs show a 0.5°C rounding discrepancy before final CMA validation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 1, 2026, 12:50 AM ET
交易量
$50,523结束日期
2026-05-03市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 12:50 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 27°C on May 3, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration's Baiyun station and supporting data from global models like ECMWF. Persistent cloud cover, showers, and high humidity—hallmarks of early May's transitional monsoon onset—suppressed daytime solar heating, with hourly readings peaking near 27°C amid overcast skies, aligning below the historical May average high of 29°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game certainty from real-time meteorological data, though minimal scenarios like a late-afternoon clearing and rapid insolation could challenge it if unvalidated station logs show a 0.5°C rounding discrepancy before final CMA validation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$50,523结束日期
2026-05-03市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 12:50 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 27°C on May 3, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration's Baiyun station and supporting data from global models like ECMWF. Persistent cloud cover, showers, and high humidity—hallmarks of early May's transitional monsoon onset—suppressed daytime solar heating, with hourly readings peaking near 27°C amid overcast skies, aligning below the historical May average high of 29°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game certainty from real-time meteorological data, though minimal scenarios like a late-afternoon clearing and rapid insolation could challenge it if unvalidated station logs show a 0.5°C rounding discrepancy before final CMA validation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题