Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 22°C or higher in Istanbul today, with 100% implied probability, driven by convergent forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projecting up to 20-24°C peaks under clear skies and southerly winds, bolstered by AccuWeather's 24°C outlook and UK Met Office guidance near 22°C. Morning observations around 15°C at Istanbul Airport, combined with strong solar heating from high pressure and minimal cloud cover, position midday highs comfortably above the threshold, exceeding April climatological averages of 15-16°C. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen marine layer intrusion or abrupt northerly wind shift inducing adiabatic cooling, though current model ensembles show low likelihood before evening resolution via NOAA airport data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 26?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 26?
22°C or higher 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$48,219 交易量
$48,219 交易量
2026-04-26
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
Yes
22°C or higher 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$48,219 交易量
$48,219 交易量
2026-04-26
12°C or below
$1,698 交易量
No
13°C
$1,470 交易量
No
14°C
$1,851 交易量
No
15°C
$1,712 交易量
No
16°C
$2,887 交易量
No
17°C
$2,331 交易量
No
18°C
$6,087 交易量
No
19°C
$8,368 交易量
No
20°C
$7,017 交易量
No
21°C
$5,656 交易量
No
22°C or higher
$9,142 交易量
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 22°C or higher in Istanbul today, with 100% implied probability, driven by convergent forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projecting up to 20-24°C peaks under clear skies and southerly winds, bolstered by AccuWeather's 24°C outlook and UK Met Office guidance near 22°C. Morning observations around 15°C at Istanbul Airport, combined with strong solar heating from high pressure and minimal cloud cover, position midday highs comfortably above the threshold, exceeding April climatological averages of 15-16°C. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen marine layer intrusion or abrupt northerly wind shift inducing adiabatic cooling, though current model ensembles show low likelihood before evening resolution via NOAA airport data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 24, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
交易量
$48,219结束日期
2026-04-26市场开放时间
Apr 24, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 22°C or higher in Istanbul today, with 100% implied probability, driven by convergent forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projecting up to 20-24°C peaks under clear skies and southerly winds, bolstered by AccuWeather's 24°C outlook and UK Met Office guidance near 22°C. Morning observations around 15°C at Istanbul Airport, combined with strong solar heating from high pressure and minimal cloud cover, position midday highs comfortably above the threshold, exceeding April climatological averages of 15-16°C. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen marine layer intrusion or abrupt northerly wind shift inducing adiabatic cooling, though current model ensembles show low likelihood before evening resolution via NOAA airport data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$48,219结束日期
2026-04-26市场开放时间
Apr 24, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 22°C or higher in Istanbul today, with 100% implied probability, driven by convergent forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projecting up to 20-24°C peaks under clear skies and southerly winds, bolstered by AccuWeather's 24°C outlook and UK Met Office guidance near 22°C. Morning observations around 15°C at Istanbul Airport, combined with strong solar heating from high pressure and minimal cloud cover, position midday highs comfortably above the threshold, exceeding April climatological averages of 15-16°C. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen marine layer intrusion or abrupt northerly wind shift inducing adiabatic cooling, though current model ensembles show low likelihood before evening resolution via NOAA airport data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题