Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 27°C or higher as virtually certain for Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 27-28°C under persistent high-pressure ridging and mostly sunny skies. Morning observations at Istanbul Atatürk Airport (LTBA) already show temperatures climbing from 17°C at dawn to the low 20s by midday, aligning with rapid diurnal warming typical for May's climatological norms—averaging 21°C but exceeding that amid this season's above-normal warmth. Model ensembles exhibit tight agreement on peak heat between 1400-1600 UTC, with minimal cloud interference. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen sea breeze surge from the Bosphorus cooling urban heat islands or a late-afternoon model bust, though probabilities remain under 1% per current data. Evening MGM bulletins will confirm the official max.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 12?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 12?
27°C or higher 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$41,548 交易量
$41,548 交易量
2026-05-12
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
Yes
27°C or higher 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$41,548 交易量
$41,548 交易量
2026-05-12
17°C or below
$3,668 交易量
No
18°C
$542 交易量
No
19°C
$743 交易量
No
20°C
$1,161 交易量
No
21°C
$3,379 交易量
No
22°C
$8,668 交易量
No
23°C
$5,695 交易量
No
24°C
$4,919 交易量
No
25°C
$3,471 交易量
No
26°C
$3,623 交易量
No
27°C or higher
$5,678 交易量
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 27°C or higher as virtually certain for Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 27-28°C under persistent high-pressure ridging and mostly sunny skies. Morning observations at Istanbul Atatürk Airport (LTBA) already show temperatures climbing from 17°C at dawn to the low 20s by midday, aligning with rapid diurnal warming typical for May's climatological norms—averaging 21°C but exceeding that amid this season's above-normal warmth. Model ensembles exhibit tight agreement on peak heat between 1400-1600 UTC, with minimal cloud interference. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen sea breeze surge from the Bosphorus cooling urban heat islands or a late-afternoon model bust, though probabilities remain under 1% per current data. Evening MGM bulletins will confirm the official max.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 10, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
交易量
$41,548结束日期
2026-05-12市场开放时间
May 10, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 27°C or higher as virtually certain for Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 27-28°C under persistent high-pressure ridging and mostly sunny skies. Morning observations at Istanbul Atatürk Airport (LTBA) already show temperatures climbing from 17°C at dawn to the low 20s by midday, aligning with rapid diurnal warming typical for May's climatological norms—averaging 21°C but exceeding that amid this season's above-normal warmth. Model ensembles exhibit tight agreement on peak heat between 1400-1600 UTC, with minimal cloud interference. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen sea breeze surge from the Bosphorus cooling urban heat islands or a late-afternoon model bust, though probabilities remain under 1% per current data. Evening MGM bulletins will confirm the official max.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$41,548结束日期
2026-05-12市场开放时间
May 10, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 27°C or higher as virtually certain for Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 27-28°C under persistent high-pressure ridging and mostly sunny skies. Morning observations at Istanbul Atatürk Airport (LTBA) already show temperatures climbing from 17°C at dawn to the low 20s by midday, aligning with rapid diurnal warming typical for May's climatological norms—averaging 21°C but exceeding that amid this season's above-normal warmth. Model ensembles exhibit tight agreement on peak heat between 1400-1600 UTC, with minimal cloud interference. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen sea breeze surge from the Bosphorus cooling urban heat islands or a late-afternoon model bust, though probabilities remain under 1% per current data. Evening MGM bulletins will confirm the official max.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题