Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 10°C in Moscow on April 18, backed by real-time observational data from NOAA at Vnukovo International Airport—the market's official resolution source—which recorded a midday peak of 10°C under overcast skies and light precipitation. This positioning stems from a sharp cold snap triggered by an influx of Arctic air over European Russia, following unseasonably warm highs near 16°C on April 16, as confirmed by Russian Hydrometeorological Center updates. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS anticipated subdued warming due to persistent cloud cover and northerly winds, aligning with historical April climatology where daily maxima rarely exceed forecasts amid such synoptic patterns. With sunset approaching and minimal diurnal heating potential remaining, only an improbable sudden clearing and solar surge could challenge this, though official hourly reports through evening will finalize the record.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Moscow on April 18?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 18?
10°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$83,389 交易量
$83,389 交易量
2026-04-18
6°C or below
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
Yes
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C or higher
No
10°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$83,389 交易量
$83,389 交易量
2026-04-18
6°C or below
$7,089 交易量
No
7°C
$6,025 交易量
No
8°C
$7,761 交易量
No
9°C
$14,953 交易量
No
10°C
$17,718 交易量
Yes
11°C
$7,621 交易量
No
12°C
$7,228 交易量
No
13°C
$5,936 交易量
No
14°C
$3,396 交易量
No
15°C
$3,033 交易量
No
16°C or higher
$2,629 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 10°C in Moscow on April 18, backed by real-time observational data from NOAA at Vnukovo International Airport—the market's official resolution source—which recorded a midday peak of 10°C under overcast skies and light precipitation. This positioning stems from a sharp cold snap triggered by an influx of Arctic air over European Russia, following unseasonably warm highs near 16°C on April 16, as confirmed by Russian Hydrometeorological Center updates. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS anticipated subdued warming due to persistent cloud cover and northerly winds, aligning with historical April climatology where daily maxima rarely exceed forecasts amid such synoptic patterns. With sunset approaching and minimal diurnal heating potential remaining, only an improbable sudden clearing and solar surge could challenge this, though official hourly reports through evening will finalize the record.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 16, 2026, 1:48 AM ET
交易量
$83,389结束日期
2026-04-18市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 1:48 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 10°C in Moscow on April 18, backed by real-time observational data from NOAA at Vnukovo International Airport—the market's official resolution source—which recorded a midday peak of 10°C under overcast skies and light precipitation. This positioning stems from a sharp cold snap triggered by an influx of Arctic air over European Russia, following unseasonably warm highs near 16°C on April 16, as confirmed by Russian Hydrometeorological Center updates. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS anticipated subdued warming due to persistent cloud cover and northerly winds, aligning with historical April climatology where daily maxima rarely exceed forecasts amid such synoptic patterns. With sunset approaching and minimal diurnal heating potential remaining, only an improbable sudden clearing and solar surge could challenge this, though official hourly reports through evening will finalize the record.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$83,389结束日期
2026-04-18市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 1:48 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 10°C in Moscow on April 18, backed by real-time observational data from NOAA at Vnukovo International Airport—the market's official resolution source—which recorded a midday peak of 10°C under overcast skies and light precipitation. This positioning stems from a sharp cold snap triggered by an influx of Arctic air over European Russia, following unseasonably warm highs near 16°C on April 16, as confirmed by Russian Hydrometeorological Center updates. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS anticipated subdued warming due to persistent cloud cover and northerly winds, aligning with historical April climatology where daily maxima rarely exceed forecasts amid such synoptic patterns. With sunset approaching and minimal diurnal heating potential remaining, only an improbable sudden clearing and solar surge could challenge this, though official hourly reports through evening will finalize the record.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题