Trader consensus has locked in 60-61°F at 100% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature on May 2, 2026, driven by confirmed observational data from the San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) station, the standard reference for such markets. National Weather Service hourly records show peak readings of 61°F around 3 p.m., while Weather Underground aggregates the daily maximum at 60°F, fitting squarely in this bin amid persistent marine stratus clouds and west-southwest winds up to 16 mph that capped diurnal heating well below the 67°F climatological average. This "May Gray" pattern, fueled by cool Pacific sea surface temperatures and strong onshore flow, suppressed highs effectively. Realistic challenges would require a formal data audit revising the official max upward—highly unlikely given cross-verified observations—but traders await final NWS climatological report for resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 2?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 2?
60-61°F 100.0%
49°F or below <1%
50-51°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
$67,360 交易量
$67,360 交易量
2026-05-02
49°F or below
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
Yes
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68°F or higher
No
60-61°F 100.0%
49°F or below <1%
50-51°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
$67,360 交易量
$67,360 交易量
2026-05-02
49°F or below
$2,158 交易量
No
50-51°F
$790 交易量
No
52-53°F
$4,415 交易量
No
54-55°F
$3,520 交易量
No
56-57°F
$3,864 交易量
No
58-59°F
$21,713 交易量
No
60-61°F
$5,930 交易量
Yes
62-63°F
$12,839 交易量
No
64-65°F
$5,443 交易量
No
66-67°F
$3,208 交易量
No
68°F or higher
$3,479 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in 60-61°F at 100% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature on May 2, 2026, driven by confirmed observational data from the San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) station, the standard reference for such markets. National Weather Service hourly records show peak readings of 61°F around 3 p.m., while Weather Underground aggregates the daily maximum at 60°F, fitting squarely in this bin amid persistent marine stratus clouds and west-southwest winds up to 16 mph that capped diurnal heating well below the 67°F climatological average. This "May Gray" pattern, fueled by cool Pacific sea surface temperatures and strong onshore flow, suppressed highs effectively. Realistic challenges would require a formal data audit revising the official max upward—highly unlikely given cross-verified observations—but traders await final NWS climatological report for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
交易量
$67,360结束日期
2026-05-02市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in 60-61°F at 100% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature on May 2, 2026, driven by confirmed observational data from the San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) station, the standard reference for such markets. National Weather Service hourly records show peak readings of 61°F around 3 p.m., while Weather Underground aggregates the daily maximum at 60°F, fitting squarely in this bin amid persistent marine stratus clouds and west-southwest winds up to 16 mph that capped diurnal heating well below the 67°F climatological average. This "May Gray" pattern, fueled by cool Pacific sea surface temperatures and strong onshore flow, suppressed highs effectively. Realistic challenges would require a formal data audit revising the official max upward—highly unlikely given cross-verified observations—but traders await final NWS climatological report for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$67,360结束日期
2026-05-02市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus has locked in 60-61°F at 100% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature on May 2, 2026, driven by confirmed observational data from the San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) station, the standard reference for such markets. National Weather Service hourly records show peak readings of 61°F around 3 p.m., while Weather Underground aggregates the daily maximum at 60°F, fitting squarely in this bin amid persistent marine stratus clouds and west-southwest winds up to 16 mph that capped diurnal heating well below the 67°F climatological average. This "May Gray" pattern, fueled by cool Pacific sea surface temperatures and strong onshore flow, suppressed highs effectively. Realistic challenges would require a formal data audit revising the official max upward—highly unlikely given cross-verified observations—but traders await final NWS climatological report for resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题