Korea Meteorological Administration observations confirm Seoul's highest temperature reached exactly 19°C on May 1, 2026, at the reference station, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome amid negligible 0.1% odds for 20°C or higher. A persistent cool air mass over the Korean Peninsula suppressed diurnal heating under mostly cloudy skies, with short-range forecast models precisely capturing hourly peaks of 16–19°C and no significant wind or insolation to push beyond. Evening readings at nearby Incheon International Airport fell to 14.4°C by 22:00 KST, solidifying the daily maximum well before midnight resolution. While May climatological averages exceed 22°C, this atypical synoptic pattern minimized upside risk; only an unprecedented data revision or unforecast late surge—both highly improbable—could challenge the positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月1日首尔气温最高？
5月1日首尔气温最高？
19°C 100.0%
10°C或以下 <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$337,155 交易量
$337,155 交易量
2026-05-01
10°C或以下
否
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
是
20°C或更高
否
19°C 100.0%
10°C或以下 <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$337,155 交易量
$337,155 交易量
2026-05-01
10°C或以下
$3,433 交易量
否
11°C
$745 交易量
否
12°C
$623 交易量
否
13°C
$1,815 交易量
否
14°C
$5,825 交易量
否
15°C
$7,781 交易量
否
16°C
$24,008 交易量
否
17°C
$77,125 交易量
否
18°C
$85,319 交易量
否
19°C
$41,754 交易量
是
20°C或更高
$88,727 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration observations confirm Seoul's highest temperature reached exactly 19°C on May 1, 2026, at the reference station, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome amid negligible 0.1% odds for 20°C or higher. A persistent cool air mass over the Korean Peninsula suppressed diurnal heating under mostly cloudy skies, with short-range forecast models precisely capturing hourly peaks of 16–19°C and no significant wind or insolation to push beyond. Evening readings at nearby Incheon International Airport fell to 14.4°C by 22:00 KST, solidifying the daily maximum well before midnight resolution. While May climatological averages exceed 22°C, this atypical synoptic pattern minimized upside risk; only an unprecedented data revision or unforecast late surge—both highly improbable—could challenge the positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$337,155结束日期
2026-05-01市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 12:05 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration observations confirm Seoul's highest temperature reached exactly 19°C on May 1, 2026, at the reference station, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome amid negligible 0.1% odds for 20°C or higher. A persistent cool air mass over the Korean Peninsula suppressed diurnal heating under mostly cloudy skies, with short-range forecast models precisely capturing hourly peaks of 16–19°C and no significant wind or insolation to push beyond. Evening readings at nearby Incheon International Airport fell to 14.4°C by 22:00 KST, solidifying the daily maximum well before midnight resolution. While May climatological averages exceed 22°C, this atypical synoptic pattern minimized upside risk; only an unprecedented data revision or unforecast late surge—both highly improbable—could challenge the positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$337,155结束日期
2026-05-01市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 12:05 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Korea Meteorological Administration observations confirm Seoul's highest temperature reached exactly 19°C on May 1, 2026, at the reference station, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome amid negligible 0.1% odds for 20°C or higher. A persistent cool air mass over the Korean Peninsula suppressed diurnal heating under mostly cloudy skies, with short-range forecast models precisely capturing hourly peaks of 16–19°C and no significant wind or insolation to push beyond. Evening readings at nearby Incheon International Airport fell to 14.4°C by 22:00 KST, solidifying the daily maximum well before midnight resolution. While May climatological averages exceed 22°C, this atypical synoptic pattern minimized upside risk; only an unprecedented data revision or unforecast late surge—both highly improbable—could challenge the positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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