Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 19°C high in Shanghai today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and ensemble model runs projecting peak temperatures just below 20°C amid a persistent cool spell with northerly flows suppressing heat advection. Clear skies noted in early-morning updates from the Hong Kong Observatory (10–20°C range) support limited daytime heating, aligning with late-April climatology averaging 20°C but tempered by recent cooler-than-normal days, including yesterday's sub-15°C maximum. Resolution hinges on official Xujiahui station observations by midnight; a rare southerly wind shift or prolonged sunshine could realistically challenge this to 20–21°C, though current guidance shows negligible odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 30?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 30?
19°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$168,023 交易量
$168,023 交易量
2026-04-30
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
Yes
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
19°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$168,023 交易量
$168,023 交易量
2026-04-30
13°C or below
$3,828 交易量
No
14°C
$3,977 交易量
No
15°C
$9,200 交易量
No
16°C
$7,483 交易量
No
17°C
$24,957 交易量
No
18°C
$18,203 交易量
No
19°C
$21,481 交易量
Yes
20°C
$33,368 交易量
No
21°C
$19,000 交易量
No
22°C
$12,329 交易量
No
23°C or higher
$14,196 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 19°C high in Shanghai today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and ensemble model runs projecting peak temperatures just below 20°C amid a persistent cool spell with northerly flows suppressing heat advection. Clear skies noted in early-morning updates from the Hong Kong Observatory (10–20°C range) support limited daytime heating, aligning with late-April climatology averaging 20°C but tempered by recent cooler-than-normal days, including yesterday's sub-15°C maximum. Resolution hinges on official Xujiahui station observations by midnight; a rare southerly wind shift or prolonged sunshine could realistically challenge this to 20–21°C, though current guidance shows negligible odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 28, 2026, 3:59 PM ET
交易量
$168,023结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Apr 28, 2026, 3:59 PM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 19°C high in Shanghai today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and ensemble model runs projecting peak temperatures just below 20°C amid a persistent cool spell with northerly flows suppressing heat advection. Clear skies noted in early-morning updates from the Hong Kong Observatory (10–20°C range) support limited daytime heating, aligning with late-April climatology averaging 20°C but tempered by recent cooler-than-normal days, including yesterday's sub-15°C maximum. Resolution hinges on official Xujiahui station observations by midnight; a rare southerly wind shift or prolonged sunshine could realistically challenge this to 20–21°C, though current guidance shows negligible odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$168,023结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Apr 28, 2026, 3:59 PM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 19°C high in Shanghai today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and ensemble model runs projecting peak temperatures just below 20°C amid a persistent cool spell with northerly flows suppressing heat advection. Clear skies noted in early-morning updates from the Hong Kong Observatory (10–20°C range) support limited daytime heating, aligning with late-April climatology averaging 20°C but tempered by recent cooler-than-normal days, including yesterday's sub-15°C maximum. Resolution hinges on official Xujiahui station observations by midnight; a rare southerly wind shift or prolonged sunshine could realistically challenge this to 20–21°C, though current guidance shows negligible odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题