Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to scattered thunderstorms and variable cloud cover over Shenzhen on July 19, keeping daily maximum temperatures clustered near 30–32°C and supporting the tight market spread among those three outcomes. High regional humidity above 75% and South China Sea sea-surface temperatures near seasonal norms limit strong surface heating while steering patterns introduce timing uncertainty for convective activity that can suppress peaks by 1–2°C. Historical July averages hover near 32°C, yet current conditions align with the observed clustering around 30–31°C in prior daily markets. Updated model runs and official guidance through July 18–19 will refine the resolution band.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7月19日深圳气温最高？
7月19日深圳气温最高？
31°C 100.0%
25°C或以下 <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$85,082 交易量
$85,082 交易量
2026-07-19
25°C或以下
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C
否
31°C
是
32°C
否
33°C
否
34°C
否
35°C或以上
否
31°C 100.0%
25°C或以下 <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$85,082 交易量
$85,082 交易量
2026-07-19
25°C或以下
$195 交易量
否
26°C
$305 交易量
否
27°C
$11,322 交易量
否
28°C
$10,479 交易量
否
29°C
$12,374 交易量
否
30°C
$12,303 交易量
否
31°C
$8,549 交易量
是
32°C
$12,031 交易量
否
33°C
$8,780 交易量
否
34°C
$5,532 交易量
否
35°C或以上
$3,213 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to scattered thunderstorms and variable cloud cover over Shenzhen on July 19, keeping daily maximum temperatures clustered near 30–32°C and supporting the tight market spread among those three outcomes. High regional humidity above 75% and South China Sea sea-surface temperatures near seasonal norms limit strong surface heating while steering patterns introduce timing uncertainty for convective activity that can suppress peaks by 1–2°C. Historical July averages hover near 32°C, yet current conditions align with the observed clustering around 30–31°C in prior daily markets. Updated model runs and official guidance through July 18–19 will refine the resolution band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$85,082结束日期
2026-07-19市场开放时间
Jul 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to scattered thunderstorms and variable cloud cover over Shenzhen on July 19, keeping daily maximum temperatures clustered near 30–32°C and supporting the tight market spread among those three outcomes. High regional humidity above 75% and South China Sea sea-surface temperatures near seasonal norms limit strong surface heating while steering patterns introduce timing uncertainty for convective activity that can suppress peaks by 1–2°C. Historical July averages hover near 32°C, yet current conditions align with the observed clustering around 30–31°C in prior daily markets. Updated model runs and official guidance through July 18–19 will refine the resolution band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$85,082结束日期
2026-07-19市场开放时间
Jul 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to scattered thunderstorms and variable cloud cover over Shenzhen on July 19, keeping daily maximum temperatures clustered near 30–32°C and supporting the tight market spread among those three outcomes. High regional humidity above 75% and South China Sea sea-surface temperatures near seasonal norms limit strong surface heating while steering patterns introduce timing uncertainty for convective activity that can suppress peaks by 1–2°C. Historical July averages hover near 32°C, yet current conditions align with the observed clustering around 30–31°C in prior daily markets. Updated model runs and official guidance through July 18–19 will refine the resolution band.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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