Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts highlight persistent cloud cover and a 90% chance of rain for Tokyo on June 25, which should reduce solar heating and cap the daily maximum near 25–27 °C under the influence of the early-summer tsuyu pattern. These conditions create genuine uncertainty around peak temperature, as thicker cloud decks or heavier showers could suppress readings by 2–4 °C while clearer breaks might allow brief warming. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow range, with the tight clustering between 22 °C and 24 °C underscoring traders’ assessment of moisture-driven variability and the modest historical precedent for mid-20s highs during comparable late-June setups. Updated model runs expected within 24 hours could shift probabilities if guidance diverges on precipitation timing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 25?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 25?
22°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$104,244 交易量
$104,244 交易量
2026-06-25
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$104,244 交易量
$104,244 交易量
2026-06-25
17°C or below
$2,983 交易量
No
18°C
$5,777 交易量
No
19°C
$5,388 交易量
No
20°C
$5,590 交易量
No
21°C
$41,559 交易量
No
22°C
$21,530 交易量
Yes
23°C
$7,039 交易量
No
24°C
$7,988 交易量
No
25°C
$4,803 交易量
No
26°C
$1,236 交易量
No
27°C or higher
$351 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts highlight persistent cloud cover and a 90% chance of rain for Tokyo on June 25, which should reduce solar heating and cap the daily maximum near 25–27 °C under the influence of the early-summer tsuyu pattern. These conditions create genuine uncertainty around peak temperature, as thicker cloud decks or heavier showers could suppress readings by 2–4 °C while clearer breaks might allow brief warming. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow range, with the tight clustering between 22 °C and 24 °C underscoring traders’ assessment of moisture-driven variability and the modest historical precedent for mid-20s highs during comparable late-June setups. Updated model runs expected within 24 hours could shift probabilities if guidance diverges on precipitation timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$104,244结束日期
2026-06-25市场开放时间
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts highlight persistent cloud cover and a 90% chance of rain for Tokyo on June 25, which should reduce solar heating and cap the daily maximum near 25–27 °C under the influence of the early-summer tsuyu pattern. These conditions create genuine uncertainty around peak temperature, as thicker cloud decks or heavier showers could suppress readings by 2–4 °C while clearer breaks might allow brief warming. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow range, with the tight clustering between 22 °C and 24 °C underscoring traders’ assessment of moisture-driven variability and the modest historical precedent for mid-20s highs during comparable late-June setups. Updated model runs expected within 24 hours could shift probabilities if guidance diverges on precipitation timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$104,244结束日期
2026-06-25市场开放时间
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts highlight persistent cloud cover and a 90% chance of rain for Tokyo on June 25, which should reduce solar heating and cap the daily maximum near 25–27 °C under the influence of the early-summer tsuyu pattern. These conditions create genuine uncertainty around peak temperature, as thicker cloud decks or heavier showers could suppress readings by 2–4 °C while clearer breaks might allow brief warming. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow range, with the tight clustering between 22 °C and 24 °C underscoring traders’ assessment of moisture-driven variability and the modest historical precedent for mid-20s highs during comparable late-June setups. Updated model runs expected within 24 hours could shift probabilities if guidance diverges on precipitation timing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题