Météo-France's latest AROME model run and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF project a precise nocturnal minimum of 14°C in Paris on May 3, driving trader consensus to full certainty on this outcome amid a stable mild weather pattern over Île-de-France. This positioning stems from the past week's pleasant conditions (8–26°C range) continuing under light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, which limit radiative cooling despite typical May averages around 9–11°C lows. Morning observations already exceeding 13°C further solidify the market-implied odds. Realistic challenges include unanticipated clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 13°C or below, though current guidance deems this improbable; final station data from Paris-Montsouris or Orly will resolve post-midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月3日巴黎最低气温？
5月3日巴黎最低气温？
14°C 100.0%
8°C或以下 <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$12,747 交易量
$12,747 交易量
2026-05-03
8°C或以下
否
9°C
否
10°C
否
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
是
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C或更高
否
14°C 100.0%
8°C或以下 <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$12,747 交易量
$12,747 交易量
2026-05-03
8°C或以下
$424 交易量
否
9°C
$899 交易量
否
10°C
$457 交易量
否
11°C
$633 交易量
否
12°C
$809 交易量
否
13°C
$1,029 交易量
否
14°C
$1,950 交易量
是
15°C
$1,191 交易量
否
16°C
$1,692 交易量
否
17°C
$1,913 交易量
否
18°C或更高
$1,750 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Météo-France's latest AROME model run and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF project a precise nocturnal minimum of 14°C in Paris on May 3, driving trader consensus to full certainty on this outcome amid a stable mild weather pattern over Île-de-France. This positioning stems from the past week's pleasant conditions (8–26°C range) continuing under light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, which limit radiative cooling despite typical May averages around 9–11°C lows. Morning observations already exceeding 13°C further solidify the market-implied odds. Realistic challenges include unanticipated clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 13°C or below, though current guidance deems this improbable; final station data from Paris-Montsouris or Orly will resolve post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
交易量
$12,747结束日期
2026-05-03市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Météo-France's latest AROME model run and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF project a precise nocturnal minimum of 14°C in Paris on May 3, driving trader consensus to full certainty on this outcome amid a stable mild weather pattern over Île-de-France. This positioning stems from the past week's pleasant conditions (8–26°C range) continuing under light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, which limit radiative cooling despite typical May averages around 9–11°C lows. Morning observations already exceeding 13°C further solidify the market-implied odds. Realistic challenges include unanticipated clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 13°C or below, though current guidance deems this improbable; final station data from Paris-Montsouris or Orly will resolve post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$12,747结束日期
2026-05-03市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Météo-France's latest AROME model run and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF project a precise nocturnal minimum of 14°C in Paris on May 3, driving trader consensus to full certainty on this outcome amid a stable mild weather pattern over Île-de-France. This positioning stems from the past week's pleasant conditions (8–26°C range) continuing under light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, which limit radiative cooling despite typical May averages around 9–11°C lows. Morning observations already exceeding 13°C further solidify the market-implied odds. Realistic challenges include unanticipated clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 13°C or below, though current guidance deems this improbable; final station data from Paris-Montsouris or Orly will resolve post-midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题