The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report shifted the key driver of trader sentiment by projecting depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund in late 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—due to the 2025 tax law reducing revenue from benefit taxation and downward revisions to fertility and immigration assumptions. This moves the point of automatic 22% benefit cuts closer, with the combined OASDI funds still slated for 2034. Traders focus on whether Congress will enact reforms such as payroll tax increases, benefit adjustments, or trust fund reallocations before midterms or the next report, as the program already runs annual cash deficits covered by dwindling reserves. Recent developments underscore the narrowing window for action, with no major legislative progress evident since the report.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于社会保障破产方…… ？
社会保障破产方…… ？
最新
2029-01-01
2027年12月31日
10%
2028年12月31日
22%
$300 交易量
2027年12月31日
$274 交易量
10%
2028年12月31日
$26 交易量
22%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report shifted the key driver of trader sentiment by projecting depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund in late 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—due to the 2025 tax law reducing revenue from benefit taxation and downward revisions to fertility and immigration assumptions. This moves the point of automatic 22% benefit cuts closer, with the combined OASDI funds still slated for 2034. Traders focus on whether Congress will enact reforms such as payroll tax increases, benefit adjustments, or trust fund reallocations before midterms or the next report, as the program already runs annual cash deficits covered by dwindling reserves. Recent developments underscore the narrowing window for action, with no major legislative progress evident since the report.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET
交易量
$300结束日期
2029-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report shifted the key driver of trader sentiment by projecting depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund in late 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—due to the 2025 tax law reducing revenue from benefit taxation and downward revisions to fertility and immigration assumptions. This moves the point of automatic 22% benefit cuts closer, with the combined OASDI funds still slated for 2034. Traders focus on whether Congress will enact reforms such as payroll tax increases, benefit adjustments, or trust fund reallocations before midterms or the next report, as the program already runs annual cash deficits covered by dwindling reserves. Recent developments underscore the narrowing window for action, with no major legislative progress evident since the report.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$300结束日期
2029-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report shifted the key driver of trader sentiment by projecting depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund in late 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—due to the 2025 tax law reducing revenue from benefit taxation and downward revisions to fertility and immigration assumptions. This moves the point of automatic 22% benefit cuts closer, with the combined OASDI funds still slated for 2034. Traders focus on whether Congress will enact reforms such as payroll tax increases, benefit adjustments, or trust fund reallocations before midterms or the next report, as the program already runs annual cash deficits covered by dwindling reserves. Recent developments underscore the narrowing window for action, with no major legislative progress evident since the report.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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