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icon for 西班牙在2026年提前举行大选?

西班牙在2026年提前举行大选?

icon for 西班牙在2026年提前举行大选?

西班牙在2026年提前举行大选?

35% 概率
Polymarket

$27,183 交易量

35% 概率
Polymarket

$27,183 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Spain’s minority coalition government under Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez continues to navigate parliamentary fragility and recent regional setbacks, including PSOE losses in Extremadura, Aragón, Castilla y León, and Andalusia that strengthened the PP-Vox bloc. Sánchez has publicly committed to exhausting the legislative term and standing for re-election by the August 2027 deadline, while rejecting earlier speculation around a possible June 2026 “Super Sunday” vote tied to the Iran conflict or Andalusian polling. Budget negotiations with Catalan and Basque allies remain tense but have not produced a no-confidence motion or dissolution trigger. Traders assign the 65% probability to “No” because these factors indicate the executive is prioritizing stability and full-term governance over an early dissolution, absent an immediate parliamentary crisis or loss of key coalition support before year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$27,183
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Spain’s minority coalition government under Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez continues to navigate parliamentary fragility and recent regional setbacks, including PSOE losses in Extremadura, Aragón, Castilla y León, and Andalusia that strengthened the PP-Vox bloc. Sánchez has publicly committed to exhausting the legislative term and standing for re-election by the August 2027 deadline, while rejecting earlier speculation around a possible June 2026 “Super Sunday” vote tied to the Iran conflict or Andalusian polling. Budget negotiations with Catalan and Basque allies remain tense but have not produced a no-confidence motion or dissolution trigger. Traders assign the 65% probability to “No” because these factors indicate the executive is prioritizing stability and full-term governance over an early dissolution, absent an immediate parliamentary crisis or loss of key coalition support before year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$27,183
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"西班牙在2026年提前举行大选?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"西班牙将在2026年举行突提前大选?",概率为 35%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 35¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 35%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"西班牙在2026年提前举行大选?"已产生 $27.2K 的总交易量(自Mar 5, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"西班牙在2026年提前举行大选?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"西班牙在2026年提前举行大选?"的当前领先者是"西班牙将在2026年举行突提前大选?",概率为 35%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 35%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"西班牙在2026年提前举行大选?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。