Polymarket traders are pricing a 26% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, edging out the 22% odds for $7,000-$7,500, amid heightened recession fears from March CPI inflation surging to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by 10.9% energy gains—and stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks spiking oil prices and pressuring equities. The index, near recent record highs of 7,165 with 5% year-to-date gains, faces headwinds from the Federal Reserve's steady 3.5%-3.75% funds rate target, softening labor data (March unemployment at 4.3%, +178,000 nonfarm payrolls), and elevated valuations. Key swing factors include April CPI release, May FOMC projections, and geopolitical resolutions, with consensus analyst targets clustering around 7,200-$7,750 underscoring the tight contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于低于6,000 26%
7,000-7,500 26%
高于8,000美元 15%
6,000-6,500美元 13%
$21,268 交易量
$21,268 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
26%
6,000-6,500美元
18%
6,500-7,000美元
18%
7,000-7,500
22%
7,500-8,000美元
13%
高于8,000美元
15%
低于6,000 26%
7,000-7,500 26%
高于8,000美元 15%
6,000-6,500美元 13%
$21,268 交易量
$21,268 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
$12,762 交易量
26%
6,000-6,500美元
$1,404 交易量
18%
6,500-7,000美元
$2,279 交易量
18%
7,000-7,500
$1,064 交易量
22%
7,500-8,000美元
$1,727 交易量
13%
高于8,000美元
$2,032 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders are pricing a 26% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, edging out the 22% odds for $7,000-$7,500, amid heightened recession fears from March CPI inflation surging to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by 10.9% energy gains—and stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks spiking oil prices and pressuring equities. The index, near recent record highs of 7,165 with 5% year-to-date gains, faces headwinds from the Federal Reserve's steady 3.5%-3.75% funds rate target, softening labor data (March unemployment at 4.3%, +178,000 nonfarm payrolls), and elevated valuations. Key swing factors include April CPI release, May FOMC projections, and geopolitical resolutions, with consensus analyst targets clustering around 7,200-$7,750 underscoring the tight contest.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$21,268结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders are pricing a 26% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, edging out the 22% odds for $7,000-$7,500, amid heightened recession fears from March CPI inflation surging to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by 10.9% energy gains—and stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks spiking oil prices and pressuring equities. The index, near recent record highs of 7,165 with 5% year-to-date gains, faces headwinds from the Federal Reserve's steady 3.5%-3.75% funds rate target, softening labor data (March unemployment at 4.3%, +178,000 nonfarm payrolls), and elevated valuations. Key swing factors include April CPI release, May FOMC projections, and geopolitical resolutions, with consensus analyst targets clustering around 7,200-$7,750 underscoring the tight contest.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$21,268结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETPolymarket traders are pricing a 26% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, edging out the 22% odds for $7,000-$7,500, amid heightened recession fears from March CPI inflation surging to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by 10.9% energy gains—and stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks spiking oil prices and pressuring equities. The index, near recent record highs of 7,165 with 5% year-to-date gains, faces headwinds from the Federal Reserve's steady 3.5%-3.75% funds rate target, softening labor data (March unemployment at 4.3%, +178,000 nonfarm payrolls), and elevated valuations. Key swing factors include April CPI release, May FOMC projections, and geopolitical resolutions, with consensus analyst targets clustering around 7,200-$7,750 underscoring the tight contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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