Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, with the <$6,000 outcome leading at 26.5% amid closely contested probabilities across lower buckets totaling over 65%, reflecting caution despite the index's recent record close at 7,165 on April 24. This sentiment stems from Q4 2025 GDP growth slowing to 0.5%, persistent Middle East tensions offsetting relief from US-Iran talks and falling oil prices, and Fed funds steady at 3.50%-3.75% after March's hold. Elevated valuations limit upside, pitting bearish recession risks (26% elsewhere on platform) against bullish 14-17% earnings growth forecasts from FactSet. Key differentiators include upcoming Q1 GDP, April CPI, and May FOMC, where softer inflation could spur rate cuts and rally potential toward analyst targets of 7,200-7,750.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于低于6,000 27%
7,000-7,500 19%
6,000-6,500美元 18%
6,500-7,000美元 15%
$20,962 交易量
$20,962 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
27%
6,000-6,500美元
18%
6,500-7,000美元
19%
7,000-7,500
19%
7,500-8,000美元
13%
高于8,000美元
15%
低于6,000 27%
7,000-7,500 19%
6,000-6,500美元 18%
6,500-7,000美元 15%
$20,962 交易量
$20,962 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
$12,476 交易量
27%
6,000-6,500美元
$1,400 交易量
18%
6,500-7,000美元
$2,275 交易量
19%
7,000-7,500
$1,060 交易量
19%
7,500-8,000美元
$1,723 交易量
13%
高于8,000美元
$2,028 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, with the <$6,000 outcome leading at 26.5% amid closely contested probabilities across lower buckets totaling over 65%, reflecting caution despite the index's recent record close at 7,165 on April 24. This sentiment stems from Q4 2025 GDP growth slowing to 0.5%, persistent Middle East tensions offsetting relief from US-Iran talks and falling oil prices, and Fed funds steady at 3.50%-3.75% after March's hold. Elevated valuations limit upside, pitting bearish recession risks (26% elsewhere on platform) against bullish 14-17% earnings growth forecasts from FactSet. Key differentiators include upcoming Q1 GDP, April CPI, and May FOMC, where softer inflation could spur rate cuts and rally potential toward analyst targets of 7,200-7,750.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$20,962结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, with the <$6,000 outcome leading at 26.5% amid closely contested probabilities across lower buckets totaling over 65%, reflecting caution despite the index's recent record close at 7,165 on April 24. This sentiment stems from Q4 2025 GDP growth slowing to 0.5%, persistent Middle East tensions offsetting relief from US-Iran talks and falling oil prices, and Fed funds steady at 3.50%-3.75% after March's hold. Elevated valuations limit upside, pitting bearish recession risks (26% elsewhere on platform) against bullish 14-17% earnings growth forecasts from FactSet. Key differentiators include upcoming Q1 GDP, April CPI, and May FOMC, where softer inflation could spur rate cuts and rally potential toward analyst targets of 7,200-7,750.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$20,962结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, with the <$6,000 outcome leading at 26.5% amid closely contested probabilities across lower buckets totaling over 65%, reflecting caution despite the index's recent record close at 7,165 on April 24. This sentiment stems from Q4 2025 GDP growth slowing to 0.5%, persistent Middle East tensions offsetting relief from US-Iran talks and falling oil prices, and Fed funds steady at 3.50%-3.75% after March's hold. Elevated valuations limit upside, pitting bearish recession risks (26% elsewhere on platform) against bullish 14-17% earnings growth forecasts from FactSet. Key differentiators include upcoming Q1 GDP, April CPI, and May FOMC, where softer inflation could spur rate cuts and rally potential toward analyst targets of 7,200-7,750.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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