Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing in the $7,000-$7,500 range by end-2026, reflecting Wall Street strategists' clustered year-end targets around 7,200-7,600 from Goldman Sachs (7,600), JPMorgan (7,200 post-downgrade), and others, driven by projected 12% earnings-per-share growth to $305-$309 amid resilient AI-fueled revenue trends. The index's recent rally to record highs near 7,140—up 5% year-to-date after an early dip to 6,310—has been tempered by persistent inflation, with March 2026 CPI rising 1.1% month-over-month and Fed core PCE forecasts lifted to 2.7%, alongside Middle East tensions elevating oil risks and holding federal funds rates at 3.50%-3.75%. Upcoming Q1 earnings and May FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7,000-7,500 49%
低于6,000 31%
6,500-7,000美元 15%
7,500-8,000美元 15%
$21,515 交易量
$21,515 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
31%
6,000-6,500美元
30%
6,500-7,000美元
20%
7,000-7,500
49%
7,500-8,000美元
8%
高于8,000美元
11%
7,000-7,500 49%
低于6,000 31%
6,500-7,000美元 15%
7,500-8,000美元 15%
$21,515 交易量
$21,515 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
$12,784 交易量
31%
6,000-6,500美元
$1,404 交易量
30%
6,500-7,000美元
$2,279 交易量
20%
7,000-7,500
$1,064 交易量
49%
7,500-8,000美元
$1,813 交易量
8%
高于8,000美元
$2,171 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing in the $7,000-$7,500 range by end-2026, reflecting Wall Street strategists' clustered year-end targets around 7,200-7,600 from Goldman Sachs (7,600), JPMorgan (7,200 post-downgrade), and others, driven by projected 12% earnings-per-share growth to $305-$309 amid resilient AI-fueled revenue trends. The index's recent rally to record highs near 7,140—up 5% year-to-date after an early dip to 6,310—has been tempered by persistent inflation, with March 2026 CPI rising 1.1% month-over-month and Fed core PCE forecasts lifted to 2.7%, alongside Middle East tensions elevating oil risks and holding federal funds rates at 3.50%-3.75%. Upcoming Q1 earnings and May FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$21,515结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing in the $7,000-$7,500 range by end-2026, reflecting Wall Street strategists' clustered year-end targets around 7,200-7,600 from Goldman Sachs (7,600), JPMorgan (7,200 post-downgrade), and others, driven by projected 12% earnings-per-share growth to $305-$309 amid resilient AI-fueled revenue trends. The index's recent rally to record highs near 7,140—up 5% year-to-date after an early dip to 6,310—has been tempered by persistent inflation, with March 2026 CPI rising 1.1% month-over-month and Fed core PCE forecasts lifted to 2.7%, alongside Middle East tensions elevating oil risks and holding federal funds rates at 3.50%-3.75%. Upcoming Q1 earnings and May FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$21,515结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing in the $7,000-$7,500 range by end-2026, reflecting Wall Street strategists' clustered year-end targets around 7,200-7,600 from Goldman Sachs (7,600), JPMorgan (7,200 post-downgrade), and others, driven by projected 12% earnings-per-share growth to $305-$309 amid resilient AI-fueled revenue trends. The index's recent rally to record highs near 7,140—up 5% year-to-date after an early dip to 6,310—has been tempered by persistent inflation, with March 2026 CPI rising 1.1% month-over-month and Fed core PCE forecasts lifted to 2.7%, alongside Middle East tensions elevating oil risks and holding federal funds rates at 3.50%-3.75%. Upcoming Q1 earnings and May FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题