Trader consensus on the S&P 500’s 2026 year-end close reflects a closely contested range, with the >8,000 bucket holding the highest implied probability at 35.5% amid current levels near 7,650. Strong second-quarter earnings beats, particularly in technology and AI-driven sectors with EPS growth exceeding 25% year-over-year in many cases, underpin support for upside outcomes in the $7,500–8,000 and higher bands. However, rising Treasury yields, sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, and geopolitical pressures have prompted several Wall Street firms to trim year-end targets to the 7,400–7,950 area. Key swing factors include upcoming inflation releases, FOMC communications on policy stance, and third-quarter earnings that could clarify whether AI momentum sustains broader gains or yields cap valuations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于高于8,000美元 29%
7,500-8,000美元 19%
7,000-7,500 17%
6,500-7,000美元 10%
$44,814 交易量
$44,814 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
8%
6,000-6,500美元
7%
6,500-7,000美元
10%
7,000-7,500
21%
7,500-8,000美元
29%
高于8,000美元
34%
高于8,000美元 29%
7,500-8,000美元 19%
7,000-7,500 17%
6,500-7,000美元 10%
$44,814 交易量
$44,814 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
$23,712 交易量
8%
6,000-6,500美元
$2,380 交易量
7%
6,500-7,000美元
$4,657 交易量
10%
7,000-7,500
$2,769 交易量
21%
7,500-8,000美元
$4,333 交易量
29%
高于8,000美元
$6,963 交易量
34%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on the S&P 500’s 2026 year-end close reflects a closely contested range, with the >8,000 bucket holding the highest implied probability at 35.5% amid current levels near 7,650. Strong second-quarter earnings beats, particularly in technology and AI-driven sectors with EPS growth exceeding 25% year-over-year in many cases, underpin support for upside outcomes in the $7,500–8,000 and higher bands. However, rising Treasury yields, sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, and geopolitical pressures have prompted several Wall Street firms to trim year-end targets to the 7,400–7,950 area. Key swing factors include upcoming inflation releases, FOMC communications on policy stance, and third-quarter earnings that could clarify whether AI momentum sustains broader gains or yields cap valuations.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$44,814结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on the S&P 500’s 2026 year-end close reflects a closely contested range, with the >8,000 bucket holding the highest implied probability at 35.5% amid current levels near 7,650. Strong second-quarter earnings beats, particularly in technology and AI-driven sectors with EPS growth exceeding 25% year-over-year in many cases, underpin support for upside outcomes in the $7,500–8,000 and higher bands. However, rising Treasury yields, sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, and geopolitical pressures have prompted several Wall Street firms to trim year-end targets to the 7,400–7,950 area. Key swing factors include upcoming inflation releases, FOMC communications on policy stance, and third-quarter earnings that could clarify whether AI momentum sustains broader gains or yields cap valuations.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$44,814结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETTrader consensus on the S&P 500’s 2026 year-end close reflects a closely contested range, with the >8,000 bucket holding the highest implied probability at 35.5% amid current levels near 7,650. Strong second-quarter earnings beats, particularly in technology and AI-driven sectors with EPS growth exceeding 25% year-over-year in many cases, underpin support for upside outcomes in the $7,500–8,000 and higher bands. However, rising Treasury yields, sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, and geopolitical pressures have prompted several Wall Street firms to trim year-end targets to the 7,400–7,950 area. Key swing factors include upcoming inflation releases, FOMC communications on policy stance, and third-quarter earnings that could clarify whether AI momentum sustains broader gains or yields cap valuations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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