**Emmanuel Macron has shown no recent intention to convene a national referendum before year-end, despite occasional past references to the mechanism.** As his second and final term winds down ahead of the April 2027 presidential election, the Élysée has prioritized parliamentary routes for major legislation, including the assisted dying law signed in August 2026 after Constitutional Council approval. Following the Council’s mid-August ruling striking down the under-15 social media ban on free-expression grounds, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised bill for legislative consideration rather than pursuing a popular vote. Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal publicly urged a referendum on the issue, but this remains an external proposal without presidential endorsement. France’s last nationwide referendum occurred more than two decades ago, and with a fragmented parliament, municipal elections scheduled for March, and the presidential campaign approaching, no procedural steps—such as publication of a qualifying decree under Article 11 or 89—have materialized to shift the market’s strong “No” consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
7% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-30
是
7% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Emmanuel Macron has shown no recent intention to convene a national referendum before year-end, despite occasional past references to the mechanism.** As his second and final term winds down ahead of the April 2027 presidential election, the Élysée has prioritized parliamentary routes for major legislation, including the assisted dying law signed in August 2026 after Constitutional Council approval. Following the Council’s mid-August ruling striking down the under-15 social media ban on free-expression grounds, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised bill for legislative consideration rather than pursuing a popular vote. Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal publicly urged a referendum on the issue, but this remains an external proposal without presidential endorsement. France’s last nationwide referendum occurred more than two decades ago, and with a fragmented parliament, municipal elections scheduled for March, and the presidential campaign approaching, no procedural steps—such as publication of a qualifying decree under Article 11 or 89—have materialized to shift the market’s strong “No” consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Emmanuel Macron has shown no recent intention to convene a national referendum before year-end, despite occasional past references to the mechanism.** As his second and final term winds down ahead of the April 2027 presidential election, the Élysée has prioritized parliamentary routes for major legislation, including the assisted dying law signed in August 2026 after Constitutional Council approval. Following the Council’s mid-August ruling striking down the under-15 social media ban on free-expression grounds, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised bill for legislative consideration rather than pursuing a popular vote. Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal publicly urged a referendum on the issue, but this remains an external proposal without presidential endorsement. France’s last nationwide referendum occurred more than two decades ago, and with a fragmented parliament, municipal elections scheduled for March, and the presidential campaign approaching, no procedural steps—such as publication of a qualifying decree under Article 11 or 89—have materialized to shift the market’s strong “No” consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Emmanuel Macron has shown no recent intention to convene a national referendum before year-end, despite occasional past references to the mechanism.** As his second and final term winds down ahead of the April 2027 presidential election, the Élysée has prioritized parliamentary routes for major legislation, including the assisted dying law signed in August 2026 after Constitutional Council approval. Following the Council’s mid-August ruling striking down the under-15 social media ban on free-expression grounds, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised bill for legislative consideration rather than pursuing a popular vote. Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal publicly urged a referendum on the issue, but this remains an external proposal without presidential endorsement. France’s last nationwide referendum occurred more than two decades ago, and with a fragmented parliament, municipal elections scheduled for March, and the presidential campaign approaching, no procedural steps—such as publication of a qualifying decree under Article 11 or 89—have materialized to shift the market’s strong “No” consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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