**Zohran Mamdani, the sitting New York City mayor sworn in on January 1, 2026, naturalized as a U.S. citizen in 2018 after arriving from Uganda as a child.** Republican lawmakers, including Rep. Andy Ogles, raised denaturalization calls in mid-2025 over alleged undisclosed affiliations or statements predating citizenship, prompting limited DOJ inquiries and public comments from President Trump. Immigration law experts have consistently noted that revocation requires proof of material fraud in the original application or specific disqualifying conduct, thresholds unmet by public claims to date. No formal proceedings have advanced, and court precedents sharply limit denaturalization outside narrow statutory grounds. Traders assign a 98.7% probability to “No” because these procedural and evidentiary barriers have held firm through Mamdani’s election and early mayoral term, with no new developments altering the legal landscape by August 2026. Realistic shifts before 2027 remain possible only if fresh, verifiable evidence of application fraud emerges, a relevant criminal conviction occurs, or the DOJ pursues an unprecedented high-profile case that survives judicial review—outcomes viewed as low-probability given historical patterns and the absence of supporting facts.