**Elevated inflation and resilient economic data have driven the near-certain market-implied odds for an “Other” outcome in the Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) market.** Persistent price pressures, with PCE inflation projections revised up to around 3.7% for 2026, prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% through the June, July, and August meetings before delivering a 25 basis point hike to 3.75-4% on September 16. This sequence—three pauses followed by a tightening move—falls outside the specific pause-pause-pause or pause-pause-cut paths priced at just 0.1% each. The hawkish pivot reflects new Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target, reinforced by solid GDP growth, robust capital investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. Updated dot plots show most participants now see at least one additional rate increase by year-end, shifting market-implied odds away from further easing. Realistic scenarios that could still influence resolution include sharper-than-expected inflation moderation from falling energy prices or weaker growth data that might prompt a reversal at the final 2026 meetings, though current conditions point to continued policy caution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডOther 100.0%
Cut–Pause–Pause <1%
Cut–Pause–Cut <1%
Cut–Cut–Pause <1%
$894,797 Vol.
$894,797 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
No
Cut–Pause–Cut
No
Cut–Cut–Pause
No
Cut–Cut–Cut
No
Pause–Pause–Pause
No
Pause–Pause–Cut
No
Pause–Cut–Pause
No
Pause–Cut–Cut
No
Other
Yes
Other 100.0%
Cut–Pause–Pause <1%
Cut–Pause–Cut <1%
Cut–Cut–Pause <1%
$894,797 Vol.
$894,797 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$2,241 Vol.
No
Cut–Pause–Cut
$2,230 Vol.
No
Cut–Cut–Pause
$1,265 Vol.
No
Cut–Cut–Cut
$1,915 Vol.
No
Pause–Pause–Pause
$349,718 Vol.
No
Pause–Pause–Cut
$104,255 Vol.
No
Pause–Cut–Pause
$30,491 Vol.
No
Pause–Cut–Cut
$17,736 Vol.
No
Other
$384,947 Vol.
Yes
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation and resilient economic data have driven the near-certain market-implied odds for an “Other” outcome in the Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) market.** Persistent price pressures, with PCE inflation projections revised up to around 3.7% for 2026, prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% through the June, July, and August meetings before delivering a 25 basis point hike to 3.75-4% on September 16. This sequence—three pauses followed by a tightening move—falls outside the specific pause-pause-pause or pause-pause-cut paths priced at just 0.1% each.
The hawkish pivot reflects new Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target, reinforced by solid GDP growth, robust capital investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. Updated dot plots show most participants now see at least one additional rate increase by year-end, shifting market-implied odds away from further easing.
Realistic scenarios that could still influence resolution include sharper-than-expected inflation moderation from falling energy prices or weaker growth data that might prompt a reversal at the final 2026 meetings, though current conditions point to continued policy caution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
ভলিউম
$894,797শেষ তারিখ
Sep 16, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...ফলাফল প্রস্তাবিত: No
কোনো ডিসপিউট নেই
চূড়ান্ত ফলাফল: No
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation and resilient economic data have driven the near-certain market-implied odds for an “Other” outcome in the Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) market.** Persistent price pressures, with PCE inflation projections revised up to around 3.7% for 2026, prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% through the June, July, and August meetings before delivering a 25 basis point hike to 3.75-4% on September 16. This sequence—three pauses followed by a tightening move—falls outside the specific pause-pause-pause or pause-pause-cut paths priced at just 0.1% each.
The hawkish pivot reflects new Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target, reinforced by solid GDP growth, robust capital investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. Updated dot plots show most participants now see at least one additional rate increase by year-end, shifting market-implied odds away from further easing.
Realistic scenarios that could still influence resolution include sharper-than-expected inflation moderation from falling energy prices or weaker growth data that might prompt a reversal at the final 2026 meetings, though current conditions point to continued policy caution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ভলিউম
$894,797শেষ তারিখ
Sep 16, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...ফলাফল প্রস্তাবিত: No
কোনো ডিসপিউট নেই
চূড়ান্ত ফলাফল: No
**Elevated inflation and resilient economic data have driven the near-certain market-implied odds for an “Other” outcome in the Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) market.** Persistent price pressures, with PCE inflation projections revised up to around 3.7% for 2026, prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% through the June, July, and August meetings before delivering a 25 basis point hike to 3.75-4% on September 16. This sequence—three pauses followed by a tightening move—falls outside the specific pause-pause-pause or pause-pause-cut paths priced at just 0.1% each. The hawkish pivot reflects new Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target, reinforced by solid GDP growth, robust capital investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. Updated dot plots show most participants now see at least one additional rate increase by year-end, shifting market-implied odds away from further easing. Realistic scenarios that could still influence resolution include sharper-than-expected inflation moderation from falling energy prices or weaker growth data that might prompt a reversal at the final 2026 meetings, though current conditions point to continued policy caution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা