Forecast consensus from European models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, centers Munich's August 15 maximum near 32–35 °C under lingering high pressure and southerly flow advecting warm air masses. Recent observations show daily peaks easing from July's heat dome, with current guidance indicating limited afternoon convection and light winds that favor clear-sky heating but cap extreme values. Model spread arises from subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage, producing the tight clustering around 34–35 °C outcomes. Historical August climatology for the region places typical maxima near 25 °C, underscoring how persistent subtropical ridging elevates this event above baseline. Updated model cycles and official Deutscher Wetterdienst briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the precise threshold.