Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a southerly wind shift and likely rain on September 22 will moderate daytime highs in Wellington to the 12–14°C range, aligning with the market’s strong weighting toward 15°C and 14°C outcomes. Spring transition in the Southern Hemisphere typically brings variable temperatures around the 14°C September average high, but current conditions feature cooler maritime air advection and cloud cover that suppress warming, consistent with observed highs of 12–15°C in the prior week. Model consensus highlights modest uncertainty from exact timing of frontal passage and wind strength, which could allow brief clearing to push readings toward 15°C or keep them nearer 13°C. Upcoming official MetService updates and refined model runs in the next 24 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution thresholds.