Forecast models from sources like the Met Office and AccuWeather currently indicate a minimum temperature in Amsterdam on August 22 near 11–13°C, driven by a westerly flow bringing cooler maritime air under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers. This aligns with seasonal norms for late August, when overnight lows typically range 12–15°C as daylight shortens and Atlantic influences dominate. Ensemble spreads reflect modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover and wind speeds, which can alter radiative cooling rates by 1–2°C; recent runs show slight warming trends from prior drier conditions but no major shifts. Traders price 13°C and 14°C highest because these bracket the consensus minimum, while 12°C retains support amid potential for clearer skies enhancing overnight heat loss. Updated model outputs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution thresholds around these values.