Latest numerical weather prediction guidance from agencies like the Korea Meteorological Administration indicates an overnight low in Busan near 25–26°C on August 22, driven by persistent high humidity, marine air moderation along the coast, and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. Recent model runs show scattered showers or overcast skies persisting into the early morning hours, which can elevate minimum temperatures by 1–2°C compared to clear-sky scenarios by trapping longwave radiation. Coastal wind patterns and the urban heat island effect further narrow the range, creating close market-implied odds between these two outcomes while keeping lower probabilities for 24°C or below. Updated short-range forecasts and any new observational data on cloud thickness or precipitation timing represent the key upcoming catalysts that could shift trader consensus.