**Forecast models indicate a daily minimum temperature in Buenos Aires on August 30, 2026, likely between 8–12°C under stable high-pressure conditions and light northeasterly winds.** Current ensemble guidance from sources such as the GFS, ECMWF, and regional models shows overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with dew points near 8–10°C limiting further drops. Light winds (generally 2–4 m/s) reduce turbulent mixing in the boundary layer, allowing surface temperatures to fall more efficiently after sunset, while the absence of significant cold-air advection from the south keeps extremes moderate for late winter. Trader sentiment, reflected in closely matched probabilities around 6–9°C, incorporates model spread on cloud cover timing and exact wind speeds overnight. Higher outcomes (10°C+) receive lower weight because historical climatology for late August favors minima near 8–11°C, and recent model runs have trended slightly cooler than earlier guidance. Key resolution factors include the official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observation at a standard station (typically Ezeiza or Observatorio Central), where the lowest hourly reading determines the market. Updated model runs through the evening of August 29 will provide the final signals traders are watching.