Trader consensus heavily favors Brian Poindexter at 86.5% implied probability to win Ohio's 7th Congressional District Democratic primary on May 5, driven by his March 26 endorsement from Senator Bernie Sanders, which boosted progressive and working-class support among his union ironworker base, alongside superior cash-on-hand of $73,155 per March 31 FEC filings—outpacing rivals in the crowded eight-candidate field. Former Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald holds second at 8% despite raising $237,000 but faces challenges with negative cash-on-hand after heavy spending. Recent April 9 candidate forums in Medina County highlighted the fragmented opposition, consolidating bets on Poindexter's momentum, though late endorsements or turnout shifts could narrow the race in this R+5 battleground district challenging incumbent Rep. Max Miller.