Johnny Garrett leads the TN-06 Republican primary field at 72% implied probability due to his role as state House Republican whip, substantial fundraising edge, and high-profile endorsements from figures including House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, and conservative influencer Riley Gaines. Van Hilleary trails at 27.5% as a former U.S. Representative and current chief of staff to retiring incumbent John Rose, bolstered by recent backing from state House Speaker Cameron Sexton and local officials. Both frontrunners have engaged in AI-generated attack ads amid the open-seat contest, while lesser-known candidates Jon Henry and Natisha Brooks remain at minimal odds. With the August 6 primary just days away, trader consensus reflects Garrett's organizational and institutional advantages in a race centered on Trump-aligned priorities such as immigration enforcement and state-level policy records.