Traders assign Donald Trump only a roughly 4% chance of resigning before 2027, reflecting his consistent public statements committing to a full term, the institutional barriers to early departure, and the absence of acute political or personal crises that have historically prompted presidential exits. As the sitting president, Trump benefits from strong party cohesion in Congress and the high threshold for impeachment or invocation of the 25th Amendment. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing aligns with historical base rates, where voluntary resignation remains exceptionally rare absent incapacity or overwhelming scandal. Realistic factors that could still alter the outcome include sudden health events, major legal developments, or unforeseen shifts in family or advisory influence within the resolution window.