Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford’s entrenched position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district drives the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The rural northeastern district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, evidenced by Crawford’s 73-point margin in 2024, combine with uncontested primaries in March 2026 and all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green faces structural headwinds from limited party infrastructure and the district’s agricultural, conservative electorate. While national turnout shifts or unforeseen candidate developments before November 3 could theoretically narrow the gap, the seat’s partisan baseline makes any Democratic victory highly improbable under current conditions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAR-01 Wahlsieger
AR-01 Wahlsieger
$26,556 Vol.
$26,556 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
98%
Demokratische Partei
1%
$26,556 Vol.
$26,556 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$16,297 Vol.
98%
Demokratische Partei
$10,259 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford’s entrenched position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district drives the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The rural northeastern district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, evidenced by Crawford’s 73-point margin in 2024, combine with uncontested primaries in March 2026 and all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green faces structural headwinds from limited party infrastructure and the district’s agricultural, conservative electorate. While national turnout shifts or unforeseen candidate developments before November 3 could theoretically narrow the gap, the seat’s partisan baseline makes any Democratic victory highly improbable under current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$26,556Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford’s entrenched position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district drives the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The rural northeastern district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, evidenced by Crawford’s 73-point margin in 2024, combine with uncontested primaries in March 2026 and all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green faces structural headwinds from limited party infrastructure and the district’s agricultural, conservative electorate. While national turnout shifts or unforeseen candidate developments before November 3 could theoretically narrow the gap, the seat’s partisan baseline makes any Democratic victory highly improbable under current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$26,556Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford’s entrenched position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district drives the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The rural northeastern district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, evidenced by Crawford’s 73-point margin in 2024, combine with uncontested primaries in March 2026 and all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green faces structural headwinds from limited party infrastructure and the district’s agricultural, conservative electorate. While national turnout shifts or unforeseen candidate developments before November 3 could theoretically narrow the gap, the seat’s partisan baseline makes any Democratic victory highly improbable under current conditions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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