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Politik·4. Nov. Wahlen

CA-43 Wahlsieger

icon for CA-43 Wahlsieger
Politik·4. Nov. Wahlen

CA-43 Wahlsieger

Polymarket

$31,580 Vol.

Polymarket

$31,580 Vol.

Demokratische Partei

$10,935 Vol.

96%

Republikanische Partei

$20,645 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Maxine Waters' strong performance in the June 2026 primary, where she secured over 63 percent of the vote and advanced alongside Republican Cristian Morales, reinforces trader consensus around a Democratic hold in this heavily Democratic-leaning district. Its D+27 Partisan Voter Index and consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from nonpartisan analysts reflect durable structural advantages, including voter registration patterns and historical margins exceeding 40 points. With the November general election still months away, the 95 percent-plus implied probability for Democrats rests on these fundamentals. Scenarios that could realistically shift outcomes remain limited to low-probability developments such as an unforeseen candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or abrupt national political realignment capable of overcoming the district's entrenched partisan baseline.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$31,580
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Maxine Waters' strong performance in the June 2026 primary, where she secured over 63 percent of the vote and advanced alongside Republican Cristian Morales, reinforces trader consensus around a Democratic hold in this heavily Democratic-leaning district. Its D+27 Partisan Voter Index and consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from nonpartisan analysts reflect durable structural advantages, including voter registration patterns and historical margins exceeding 40 points. With the November general election still months away, the 95 percent-plus implied probability for Democrats rests on these fundamentals. Scenarios that could realistically shift outcomes remain limited to low-probability developments such as an unforeseen candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or abrupt national political realignment capable of overcoming the district's entrenched partisan baseline.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$31,580
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Verwandte

icon for Wird die Demokratische Partei den CA-42 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

Wird die Demokratische Partei den CA-42 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

95%
Ja
icon for Wird die Demokratische Partei den Sitz des Repräsentantenhauses im Bezirk CA-44 gewinnen?

Wird die Demokratische Partei den Sitz des Repräsentantenhauses im Bezirk CA-44 gewinnen?

99%
Ja
icon for Wird die Demokratische Partei den CA-46-Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

Wird die Demokratische Partei den CA-46-Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

95%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„CA-43 Wahlsieger" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Demokratische Partei" mit 96%, gefolgt von „Republikanische Partei" mit 3%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 96¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 96% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „CA-43 Wahlsieger" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $31.6K generiert, seit der Markt am Jan 28, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „CA-43 Wahlsieger" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 2 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „CA-43 Wahlsieger" ist „Demokratische Partei" mit 96%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 96% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Republikanische Partei" mit 3%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „CA-43 Wahlsieger" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.