Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at an 88.4% implied probability, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcements as of late April, despite earlier preparations like a $5 billion funding round in February at a $134 billion private valuation and $1.8 billion debt raise in January. Strong revenue growth to $4 billion annualized recurring revenue for fiscal 2026, fueled by AI-integrated data lakehouse platform demand, supports staying private amid a challenging SaaS IPO environment marked by compressed multiples and market volatility. Lower probabilities for specific market cap bins, led by 100–125 billion at 6%, reflect expectations of potential valuation discounts in a public debut, with no near-term catalysts like roadshows signaled; an S-1 submission before mid-May could rapidly shift odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKein Börsengang bis zum 30. Juni 2026 89.3%
100–125 Mrd. 5.7%
Unter 100 Mrd. 3.1%
250 Mrd.+ 1.3%
$397,045 Vol.
$397,045 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Unter 100 Mrd.
3%
100–125 Mrd.
6%
125–150 Mrd.
1%
150–175 Mrd.
1%
175–200 Mrd.
1%
200–250 Mrd.
<1%
250 Mrd.+
1%
Kein Börsengang bis zum 30. Juni 2026
89%
Kein Börsengang bis zum 30. Juni 2026 89.3%
100–125 Mrd. 5.7%
Unter 100 Mrd. 3.1%
250 Mrd.+ 1.3%
$397,045 Vol.
$397,045 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Unter 100 Mrd.
$32,935 Vol.
3%
100–125 Mrd.
$61,039 Vol.
6%
125–150 Mrd.
$25,567 Vol.
1%
150–175 Mrd.
$59,389 Vol.
1%
175–200 Mrd.
$57,541 Vol.
1%
200–250 Mrd.
$19,682 Vol.
<1%
250 Mrd.+
$125,630 Vol.
1%
Kein Börsengang bis zum 30. Juni 2026
$15,247 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at an 88.4% implied probability, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcements as of late April, despite earlier preparations like a $5 billion funding round in February at a $134 billion private valuation and $1.8 billion debt raise in January. Strong revenue growth to $4 billion annualized recurring revenue for fiscal 2026, fueled by AI-integrated data lakehouse platform demand, supports staying private amid a challenging SaaS IPO environment marked by compressed multiples and market volatility. Lower probabilities for specific market cap bins, led by 100–125 billion at 6%, reflect expectations of potential valuation discounts in a public debut, with no near-term catalysts like roadshows signaled; an S-1 submission before mid-May could rapidly shift odds.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
Volumen
$397,045Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at an 88.4% implied probability, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcements as of late April, despite earlier preparations like a $5 billion funding round in February at a $134 billion private valuation and $1.8 billion debt raise in January. Strong revenue growth to $4 billion annualized recurring revenue for fiscal 2026, fueled by AI-integrated data lakehouse platform demand, supports staying private amid a challenging SaaS IPO environment marked by compressed multiples and market volatility. Lower probabilities for specific market cap bins, led by 100–125 billion at 6%, reflect expectations of potential valuation discounts in a public debut, with no near-term catalysts like roadshows signaled; an S-1 submission before mid-May could rapidly shift odds.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$397,045Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at an 88.4% implied probability, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcements as of late April, despite earlier preparations like a $5 billion funding round in February at a $134 billion private valuation and $1.8 billion debt raise in January. Strong revenue growth to $4 billion annualized recurring revenue for fiscal 2026, fueled by AI-integrated data lakehouse platform demand, supports staying private amid a challenging SaaS IPO environment marked by compressed multiples and market volatility. Lower probabilities for specific market cap bins, led by 100–125 billion at 6%, reflect expectations of potential valuation discounts in a public debut, with no near-term catalysts like roadshows signaled; an S-1 submission before mid-May could rapidly shift odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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