**OpenAI’s recent confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on June 8, 2026, is the primary catalyst shaping market-implied odds.** Traders assign a 53.5% probability to no IPO by year-end 2026 because the company stated it “has not decided on timing yet” and prefers remaining private for certain initiatives, consistent with typical 60- to 90-day SEC review plus roadshow timelines that could push listing into 2027. The 21.1% probability on a $1T–1.25T close reflects OpenAI’s $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 2026 round and underwriter targets near $1 trillion, tempered by ongoing heavy losses and regulatory scrutiny. Competitive AI IPO activity, including Anthropic’s filing, and strong investor demand for large language model leaders support the smaller 13.9% chance of $1.5T+, while lower buckets capture downside risk from execution delays or valuation compression.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertReports highlight OpenAI’s massive revenue growth and infrastructure spending ahead of IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 29%18%
Reports revealed OpenAI's projected 2026 revenue exceeding $25 billion but with a $27 billion cash burn, raising concerns about profitability and influencing market skepticism on earlier IPO dates. This contributed to fluctuating market probabilities and tempered enthusiasm for a near-term IPO.
SpaceX IPO sets record, intensifying pressure on OpenAI's IPO timeline
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 45%12%
SpaceX's successful IPO and record valuation heightened market focus on AI-related IPOs, increasing pressure on OpenAI to proceed with its own IPO, causing volatility and shifts in market-implied probabilities for OpenAI's IPO outcomes.
OpenAI partnership with Visa announced amid IPO preparations
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%8%
OpenAI announced a strategic partnership with Visa to support secure payments in AI-driven commerce, signaling business expansion and strengthening enterprise positioning ahead of a potential IPO. This partnership positively influenced market sentiment about OpenAI's growth prospects.
OpenAI announces strategic partnership with Visa amid IPO preparations
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%10%
OpenAI partnered with Visa to support secure AI-driven payments, signaling enterprise growth focus and IPO readiness, which influenced market expectations positively.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar expresses reservations about 2026 IPO readiness
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 29%31%
Reports surfaced that CFO Sarah Friar advocated delaying the IPO to 2027 due to financial and operational concerns, including heavy spending and the need to meet public company reporting standards. This internal conflict introduced market skepticism and caused a decline in near-term IPO optimism.
Anthropic files confidential IPO, intensifying AI IPO competition
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%5%
Anthropic, OpenAI's main competitor, filed confidentially for its own IPO, increasing competitive pressure and market uncertainty about OpenAI's valuation and timing, which influenced market probabilities across valuation brackets.
Coalition of U.S. state attorneys general opens investigation into OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%17%
A multistate investigation was launched into OpenAI's safety, advertising, and data handling practices just days after its IPO filing, adding regulatory risk and scrutiny ahead of the public offering.
SpaceX IPO sets record, intensifying AI IPO race with OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 16%14%
SpaceX's $75 billion IPO set records and intensified the race for public AI capital, putting pressure on OpenAI to follow suit. The high-profile SpaceX IPO influenced market focus on AI-related IPOs, affecting timing expectations and competitive positioning for OpenAI's IPO.
SpaceX IPO priced at $75 billion, intensifying AI IPO race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 13%14%
SpaceX's IPO pricing at $75 billion and a $2.1 trillion market cap after first day intensified competition for public AI capital, putting pressure on OpenAI's IPO timeline and valuation expectations.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman outlines vision amid IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 48%6%
Following the confidential IPO filing, CEO Sam Altman published a blog post outlining OpenAI's vision for AI development and the company's strategic considerations about going public, emphasizing the complexity of timing and benefits of remaining private for now. This tempered immediate IPO expectations but confirmed long-term plans.
Altman warns rapid AI progress may delay IPO
500–750B dips to 1%3%
Sam Altman told staff that rapid AI advances could delay the IPO, tempering bullish sentiment and dragging price down toward the 500–750 B range.
OpenAI engages Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley for IPO preparation
1T–1.25T jumps to 21%14%
Reports confirmed OpenAI is working with major investment banks to prepare its confidential IPO prospectus, targeting a potential September 2026 public debut, increasing market optimism for the IPO.
Market pushes No‑IPO probability to 26% after OpenAI filing confirmation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 26%6%
Following the filing confirmation, the market’s confidence in the “No IPO” outcome fell further to 26%, closing the analysis window.
OpenAI CEO emphasizes enterprise productivity focus ahead of potential Q4 IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 43%5%
Statements from OpenAI's CEO of Applications about focusing on enterprise productivity tools and readiness for a potential Q4 2026 IPO increased market confidence in a late 2026 public offering.
Market reacts to OpenAI's high spending and profitability concerns ahead of IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%17%
Reports highlighted OpenAI's massive infrastructure spending commitments and projected losses, raising investor concerns about profitability timelines and contributing to market skepticism about a near-term IPO, reflected in fluctuating market prices.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO delay to 2027 due to readiness concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 26%33%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar indicated that the IPO might be delayed from 2026 to 2027, citing challenges in meeting public company reporting standards and internal readiness. This announcement dampened market expectations for a 2026 IPO, increasing the probability of no IPO by year-end and causing a pullback in high valuation outcomes.
SpaceX files IPO prospectus, intensifying listing window crowding
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 48%5%
SpaceX’s high‑profile IPO filing highlighted a crowded autumn listing window, causing a slight dip in the ‘No IPO’ outcome as market participants worried about investor appetite.
OpenAI's IPO filing intensifies competition with Anthropic and SpaceX IPOs
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 27%2%
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing amid SpaceX and Anthropic's IPO preparations intensified the race for public AI capital, putting pressure on OpenAI's timeline and valuation, causing market volatility and fluctuating probabilities across valuation brackets.
Federal jury rules in favor of OpenAI in Elon Musk lawsuit
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 46%6%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and reducing uncertainty around OpenAI's IPO plans, which positively influenced market sentiment.
Federal court dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 47%16%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit removed a significant legal overhang, clearing a major obstacle for OpenAI's IPO plans and boosting investor confidence in the company's public listing timeline.
OpenAI files preliminary IPO paperwork, joining Anthropic and SpaceX
OpenAI filed preliminary paperwork to become publicly traded, marking a key milestone in its IPO process and confirming the company's imminent public market debut alongside other AI and tech giants.
SpaceX and OpenAI file IPO paperwork on same day, amplifying AI hype
1.25T–1.5T rises to 13%2%
Simultaneous announcements of SpaceX and OpenAI IPO filings drew investor attention to the AI sector, nudging the 1.25T–1.5T bracket upward to 13%.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO targeting $730B to $850B valuation
1.5T+ surges to 46%20%
OpenAI officially filed confidentially for its IPO, targeting a September 2026 debut with a valuation between $730 billion and $850 billion, confirming market expectations and driving a rise in the highest valuation bracket.
OpenAI Publicly Confirms Confidential S-1 Filing but States Timing is Undecided
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 57%29%
OpenAI officially announced its confidential S-1 submission but emphasized that the timing remains fluid and 'it may be a while,' dampening expectations for an immediate 2026 IPO.
OpenAI publicly announces IPO filing, targets September debut
OpenAI publicly confirmed its confidential IPO filing with the SEC, aiming for a September 2026 debut with a valuation up to $1 trillion. This announcement further solidified market expectations for a 2026 IPO and contributed to the highest odds for a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion.
Anthropic files confidential IPO prospectus, intensifying competition
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%5%
Anthropic, OpenAI's main competitor, also filed confidentially for an IPO, increasing competitive pressure and investor scrutiny on OpenAI's valuation and timing. This rivalry influenced market dynamics and sustained some uncertainty about OpenAI's readiness and valuation.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO registration with SEC
1.5T+ surges to 46%34%
OpenAI submitted its S-1 registration statement confidentially to the SEC, a formal step toward going public. This filing confirmed market expectations for a late 2026 IPO and drove a rise in the highest valuation bracket probabilities.
OpenAI publicly announces IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%11%
OpenAI publicly announced its IPO filing, confirming plans for a public listing in 2026 and reinforcing market expectations for a significant valuation near $1 trillion.
OpenAI confidentially files S‑1 with SEC
1.5T+ surges to 52%22%
OpenAI filed a confidential S‑1 registration statement with the SEC, confirming it will pursue a public listing. The filing lifted expectations for a 2026 IPO and pushed the market toward the higher valuation brackets, especially 1.5T+.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 50%18%
The confidential filing of the S-1 prospectus marked a key milestone in OpenAI's IPO process, confirming imminent public market debut and causing a shift in market confidence away from the 'No IPO' outcome.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 69%9%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, removing a significant legal obstacle and reducing uncertainty around OpenAI's IPO plans, positively influencing market confidence.
OpenAI publicly announces confidential IPO filing, timing undecided
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 45%17%
OpenAI confirmed its confidential S-1 filing and stated that while it has not decided on IPO timing, the filing gives it the option to go public sooner if beneficial, which increased market attention and speculation about a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI files confidential IPO amid AI industry race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing came shortly after Anthropic's similar filing and just before SpaceX's expected IPO, highlighting a competitive cluster of mega-IPOs in AI and tech, which affected market dynamics and investor expectations.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO registration with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 53%40%
OpenAI officially filed confidentially for its IPO with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters, signaling a likely IPO in late 2026 and causing a significant rise in market probabilities for the IPO and higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI publicly confirms confidential IPO filing and targets September debut
1.5T+ jumps to 14%10%
OpenAI publicly confirmed its confidential IPO filing with the SEC, aiming for a September 2026 debut with a valuation up to $1 trillion, reinforcing market expectations for a 2026 IPO and boosting the highest valuation bracket probabilities.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%9%
A federal jury ruled in favor of OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman in Elon Musk's lawsuit, removing a major legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory reduced uncertainty and was a positive catalyst for the IPO market, contributing to increased market confidence.
OpenAI announces strategic partnership with Visa amid IPO preparations
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%10%
OpenAI and Visa announced a partnership to support secure payments in AI-driven commerce, signaling operational scaling as OpenAI prepares for a potential public listing. This partnership highlighted OpenAI's enterprise growth focus and competitive positioning ahead of its IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files draft S-1 registration statement with SEC for IPO
OpenAI confidentially submitted its draft S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, marking the first formal step toward a potential IPO. The filing signals OpenAI's intent to go public, with a target valuation between $730 billion and $1 trillion, amid a competitive AI IPO landscape.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 54%24%
OpenAI officially filed a confidential draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC, marking a major step toward a public listing and boosting market optimism for a 2026 IPO and high valuation outcomes.
OpenAI submits confidential S-1 IPO filing to SEC, joining AI IPO race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 48%18%
OpenAI submitted its confidential S-1 filing to the SEC, confirming its intent to go public and joining Anthropic and SpaceX in a crowded autumn IPO window. This filing marked a critical step toward a public listing and influenced market expectations for a Q4 2026 IPO.
OpenAI files confidential S-1 registration statement with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 45%17%
OpenAI officially filed its confidential S-1 with the SEC, marking the first formal step toward its IPO, but stated that timing was undecided and the listing "may be a while," reflecting ongoing uncertainty.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, clearing IPO legal hurdle
1.5T+ jumps to 11%7%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and boosting market confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects and higher valuation outcomes.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO prospectus with SEC targeting late 2026 debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 45%18%
OpenAI officially submitted a confidential draft registration statement (Form S-1) to the SEC, marking a critical step toward a potential IPO in late 2026 with a valuation near $1 trillion, which significantly influenced market pricing and expectations.
OpenAI publicly confirms confidential IPO filing with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 28%2%
OpenAI announced it had confidentially submitted its Form S-1 to the SEC but emphasized that the IPO timing was undecided and might be delayed. This tempered near-term IPO expectations and caused a drop in market probabilities for a 2026 IPO, reflecting executive caution and strategic considerations.
OpenAI targets valuation up to $850 billion in IPO filing
OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO with an estimated valuation between $730 billion and $850 billion, positioning it as one of the most valuable AI companies to go public. This filing reinforced market expectations for a high-value IPO but also highlighted ongoing uncertainties about timing and profitability.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 46%21%
OpenAI officially submitted its confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, confirming IPO plans but emphasizing that the timing remains undecided, which tempered immediate IPO expectations and caused market adjustments.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman outlines vision amid IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 46%21%
Alongside the IPO filing announcement, CEO Sam Altman published a blog post discussing AI's transformative potential and the company's strategic considerations, signaling readiness but caution about going public, impacting market sentiment.
OpenAI Confidentially Files for IPO with the SEC
750B–1T jumps to 21%14%
OpenAI officially submitted its confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, joining rivals Anthropic and SpaceX in a historic wave of megacap public listings.
OpenAI targets IPO as soon as September 2026 with $730B-$850B valuation
1.5T+ surges to 42%16%
Reports indicated OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on a confidential IPO filing targeting a September 2026 debut with a private-market valuation between $730 billion and $850 billion, reinforcing market expectations for a large IPO in 2026.
Market reassesses OpenAI IPO timing amid reports of potential delay to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 26%6%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI's CFO suggested delaying the IPO to 2027 due to readiness concerns, causing market confidence in a 2026 IPO and high valuation to decline sharply. This led to a drop in prices for the $1.5 trillion-plus and other high valuation outcomes, reflecting increased uncertainty.
Florida files lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO over ChatGPT safety concerns
Florida became the first state to sue OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, alleging concealment of serious risks associated with ChatGPT, increasing regulatory scrutiny and adding uncertainty to OpenAI's IPO prospects.
Rival Anthropic Confidentially Files for Public Listing
1.5T+ surges to 41%20%
Anthropic submitted its draft S-1 filing, intensifying the race to go public and boosting market expectations for high-valuation AI listings in late 2026.
Rival Anthropic Confidentially Files for U.S. IPO
<500B jumps to 8%6%
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing intensified the race for public capital, putting pressure on OpenAI's timeline and shifting market expectations.
Anthropic Confidentially Files for IPO on US Stock Market
1.5T+ surges to 30%26%
OpenAI's chief rival, Anthropic, filed confidential S-1 paperwork with the SEC to go public. This move intensified the race for public AI capital and put pressure on OpenAI to follow suit.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, removing IPO legal hurdle
1.5T+ rises to 9%4%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and increasing confidence in OpenAI’s ability to proceed with its IPO plans, positively impacting market sentiment for a 2026 IPO.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 60%10%
Anthropic, OpenAI's main competitor, confidentially filed for its IPO, raising its valuation above OpenAI's and intensifying the competitive pressure on OpenAI to proceed with its own public offering. This event influenced market dynamics and investor expectations about OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO race
Anthropic, a key competitor to OpenAI, confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO, increasing competitive pressure and influencing market expectations for OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation.
Anthropic files confidential IPO at $965 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%5%
Anthropic's IPO filing at a $965 billion valuation intensified competition in the AI IPO race, influencing market dynamics and slightly tempering OpenAI's valuation probabilities due to competitive pressure.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO delay to 2027 due to readiness concerns
In early June 2026, OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar indicated that the IPO might be delayed from 2026 to 2027, citing challenges in meeting public company reporting standards and internal readiness. This announcement dampened market expectations for a 2026 IPO, increasing the probability of no IPO by year-end.
Anthropic files confidential IPO draft, ramps up AI IPO race
1.25T–1.5T drops to 7%6%
Anthropic filed a confidential IPO draft, intensifying the competitive race. The news caused a modest pullback in the highest‑valuation bracket and a lift for the 1.25T–1.5T range as traders re‑priced relative risk.
Anthropic files confidential IPO, intensifying AI IPO race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 60%3%
Anthropic, OpenAI's chief rival, confidentially filed for its IPO, raising valuation comparisons and competitive pressure on OpenAI's public offering plans. This event heightened market focus on the AI IPO race and influenced expectations for OpenAI's timing and valuation.
Market speculation intensifies on OpenAI IPO valuation and timing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 30%2%
Market participants debated OpenAI's IPO valuation, with some expecting a first-day market cap above $1 trillion, while others noted the company's high losses and delayed profitability. This uncertainty contributed to fluctuating market prices across valuation brackets.
Market speculation peaks on OpenAI IPO valuation and timing
Speculation about OpenAI's IPO valuation and timing peaked, with some traders expecting a first-day market cap above $1 trillion, while others noted financial losses and delayed profitability. This uncertainty contributed to fluctuating market prices across valuation brackets.
OpenAI investors optimistic despite financial challenges, eyeing $1 trillion IPO
1.5T+ surges to 30%18%
Despite financial losses and competition, investors remain optimistic about OpenAI's IPO potential, anticipating a valuation near $1 trillion and a September 2026 listing, supporting market prices for higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI's valuation and revenue projections highlight massive losses and funding needs
750B–1T dips to 5%4%
Analyses revealed OpenAI's substantial losses and high cash burn, with projected losses of $14 billion in 2026 and cumulative losses up to $115 billion by 2029, underscoring the IPO as a funding necessity rather than a celebration, influencing market caution on valuation.
OpenAI publicly confirms confidential IPO filing on June 8
1.5T+ rises to 31%1%
OpenAI officially confirmed a confidential filing on June 8, pushing the market’s belief in a $1.5 T+ debut to 31%.
Market reacts to internal debate over OpenAI IPO timing and CFO concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 26%44%
Reports emerged of internal disagreements between CEO Sam Altman pushing for a 2026 IPO and CFO Sarah Friar advocating delay to 2027 due to financial and reporting readiness concerns, causing market uncertainty and a drop in high valuation outcome prices.
Market anticipates OpenAI IPO could reach $2.5 trillion valuation by year-end
1.5T+ jumps to 30%8%
Market activity and reports suggested optimism that OpenAI's IPO could achieve a valuation as high as $2.5 trillion, reflecting bullish investor sentiment on the company's market cap potential post-IPO.
Market reacts to intensified competition from Anthropic and SpaceX IPOs
1.5T+ drops to 22%8%
As Anthropic and SpaceX prepared their own IPOs with high valuations, market participants reassessed OpenAI's valuation prospects amid competitive pressures and capital market dynamics, causing volatility and a decline in the highest valuation outcome prices.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 54%4%
Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI was dismissed by a jury in late May 2026, removing a legal overhang and potentially clearing a path for OpenAI's IPO plans. This dismissal contributed to positive market sentiment regarding OpenAI's public offering prospects.
Reports confirm OpenAI targets September 2026 IPO debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 74%7%
Following the confidential filing, reports confirmed OpenAI's target for a public listing as early as September 2026. This reinforced market optimism and expectations for a high valuation IPO within the year.
OpenAI's CFO expresses concerns about IPO readiness and timing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 62%6%
Reports emerged that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar had reservations about the company's readiness for a 2026 IPO due to financial losses and internal divisions, causing some market uncertainty and a temporary dip in confidence for the IPO timing and valuation.
Market speculation spikes on OpenAI IPO filing reports
1.5T+ jumps to 22%5%
Following reports of OpenAI's imminent IPO filing, prediction markets saw a sharp increase in confidence for a 2026 IPO and higher valuation outcomes, reflecting growing trader optimism and speculative activity.
OpenAI targets September 2026 IPO debut amid intense competition
1.25T–1.5T jumps to 14%6%
Reports confirmed OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman is targeting a September 2026 IPO debut, aiming to raise $60 billion. The company faces competitive pressure from Anthropic and SpaceX, influencing market expectations and valuation forecasts.
SEC acknowledges OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing
1.5T+ surges to 47%16%
The SEC confirmed receipt of OpenAI’s confidential filing, signalling that the IPO process was officially underway. The confirmation pushed the market‑cap odds back toward the 1.5T+ bracket.
OpenAI announces Guaranteed Capacity product for long-term compute commitments
1.25T–1.5T rises to 7%4%
OpenAI introduced one to three-year commitments for compute capacity, signaling strong enterprise demand and capacity planning, supporting its valuation and IPO prospects.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus targeting Q4 2026 listing
1T–1.25T rises to 13%1%
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, aiming for a public listing in the fourth quarter of 2026 with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion. This filing confirmed the company's IPO timeline and valuation expectations, driving market activity.
OpenAI files confidential S-1 IPO prospectus targeting Q4 2026 listing
1T–1.25T rises to 14%2%
On May 22, 2026, OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, aiming for a Q4 2026 public listing with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion. This filing was a major milestone confirming the IPO timeline and valuation range, influencing market prices accordingly.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 62%34%
On May 22, 2026, OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, targeting a Q4 2026 public listing with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion. This filing was a key catalyst that increased market expectations for an IPO by year-end.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
1.5T+ surges to 46%20%
OpenAI officially confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus targeting a Q4 2026 public listing with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion. This filing was a key catalyst that significantly increased market odds for an IPO by year-end and a valuation above $1.5 trillion.
Reports of imminent OpenAI IPO filing by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
1.5T+ surges to 30%19%
Insider reports indicated that OpenAI was preparing to file for an IPO imminently, with major banks advising. This news caused a sharp increase in market optimism about the IPO happening soon and achieving a high valuation, reflected in a significant price jump for the $1.5 trillion-plus outcome.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, clearing IPO path
1.5T+ jumps to 11%7%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and increasing confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects. This dismissal was perceived as a positive catalyst, briefly boosting market confidence in a successful IPO and higher valuation outcomes.
OpenAI Confidentially Files S-1 IPO Prospectus with the SEC
1.25T–1.5T jumps to 12%9%
OpenAI submitted its confidential S-1 draft registration statement to the SEC, targeting a late 2026 public listing at a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC on May 22, 2026, targeting a Q4 2026 public listing with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion, marking a key milestone in the IPO process and impacting market expectations.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC on May 22, 2026, confirming preparations for a Q4 2026 public listing with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion. This filing was a major milestone that solidified market expectations for the IPO and influenced valuation brackets.
OpenAI reports $6 billion revenue in Q1 2026, signaling strong growth
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 11%2%
OpenAI's strong Q1 2026 revenue report underscored rapid growth, supporting investor optimism about the company's valuation and IPO prospects despite ongoing losses.
OpenAI targets September IPO with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
1.5T+ jumps to 13%7%
The New York Times and other outlets reported OpenAI's plans to file a confidential IPO prospectus within days, aiming for a September 2026 public listing. This news reinforced market expectations for a 2026 IPO and a valuation near or above $1 trillion.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, removing legal risk
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 67%5%
On May 21, 2026, Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI was dismissed by a jury due to delay in filing. This removal of a significant legal risk improved market sentiment towards OpenAI's IPO prospects, supporting higher confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI targets September 2026 IPO listing after confidential filing preparations
1.5T+ jumps to 22%9%
Reports confirmed OpenAI's confidential IPO filing preparations with a target to list publicly in September 2026, reinforcing market expectations for a near-term IPO and supporting higher valuation brackets.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, clearing IPO path
1.5T+ surges to 34%21%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI removed a significant legal obstacle, increasing market optimism about the IPO timeline and contributing to a surge in the highest valuation bracket probabilities.
OpenAI targets September 2026 public listing after confidential filing
1.5T+ jumps to 24%10%
Following confidential filing preparations, OpenAI reportedly aims for a public listing as soon as September 2026. This news reinforced market expectations for a 2026 IPO and contributed to increased pricing in higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing targeting $1 trillion valuation
1.5T+ plunges to 11%39%
OpenAI prepared to confidentially file its IPO prospectus with the SEC, aiming for a public listing as early as September 2026 with a valuation near $1 trillion, intensifying market anticipation.
OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
1.5T+ surges to 22%18%
Multiple reports on May 20, 2026, confirmed OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, with major banks advising. This news sharply increased market confidence in a 2026 IPO and boosted prices for higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI Reportedly Preparing Confidential IPO Filing for September Debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 27%48%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is preparing to file confidential IPO paperwork with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026. This caused the 'No IPO' odds to plunge and boosted high-valuation brackets.
OpenAI Prepares to Confidentially File for IPO in Coming Weeks
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%45%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential IPO prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
OpenAI prepares to confidentially file IPO prospectus targeting Q4 2026 debut
OpenAI was reported to be preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, targeting a public debut as early as September or Q4 2026, which increased market speculation and influenced trading prices.
OpenAI prepares to file confidential IPO prospectus soon
1.5T+ surges to 26%15%
Reports from The Wall Street Journal and New York Times revealed OpenAI's imminent confidential IPO filing, significantly boosting market confidence in a 2026 IPO and increasing valuation expectations.
OpenAI and SpaceX IPO filings signal record-breaking 2026 IPO year
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%36%
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing alongside SpaceX's public filing marked 2026 as a banner year for mega IPOs, increasing market attention and speculation on OpenAI's valuation and timing.
Reports of OpenAI confidential IPO filing plans spark market optimism
1.5T+ surges to 26%18%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file for an IPO, with expectations for a September 2026 debut. This news increased market confidence in a 2026 IPO and higher valuation brackets.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Preparing to File Confidentially for IPO
1.5T+ surges to 33%22%
Reports from the Wall Street Journal and CNBC revealed that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to file a draft prospectus for a September IPO.
OpenAI IPO filing news causes Anthropic IPO odds to collapse in prediction markets
1.5T+ jumps to 13%8%
Following reports of OpenAI's confidential IPO filing preparations, prediction markets saw a sharp increase in OpenAI IPO odds and a collapse in Anthropic's IPO odds, reflecting investor confidence in OpenAI's lead in the AI IPO race.
OpenAI aims to accelerate IPO timeline following legal victory and market conditions
1.5T+ jumps to 26%13%
Following the dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit and favorable market conditions, OpenAI is reported to be accelerating its IPO timeline, aiming for a September 2026 debut. This optimism boosted market odds for a 2026 IPO and higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
Multiple reports on May 20, 2026, confirmed OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus with major banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, aiming for a public debut as early as September 2026. This significantly increased market confidence in a 2026 IPO and boosted valuation expectations.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Plans to Confidentially File for IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 25%40%
Reports from major outlets revealed that OpenAI is preparing to file confidential IPO paperwork with the SEC, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
Reports emerge of OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing soon
1.5T+ jumps to 13%9%
Multiple reports from The Wall Street Journal and others revealed OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file for an IPO, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley involved, boosting market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
Reports emerge of OpenAI confidentially filing IPO plans
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
CNBC reported that OpenAI planned to confidentially file its IPO prospectus draft, sparking market optimism about a potential public offering in late 2026. This news increased expectations for an IPO announcement, influencing market prices positively for the IPO outcomes.
OpenAI to file draft IPO prospectus within days, CNBC reports
1.5T+ jumps to 18%14%
CNBC reported that OpenAI would file a draft prospectus within days, causing a sharp rally in the 1.5 T+ outcome.
WSJ: OpenAI to file confidential IPO paperwork by end of May
1.5T+ jumps to 30%7%
Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI would likely file a confidential IPO registration by the end of May, spiking the 1.5T+ outcome to 30%.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, clearing legal hurdle for IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 69%10%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal obstacle and boosting market confidence in OpenAI's ability to proceed with its IPO plans, positively impacting the market's outlook for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files draft IPO prospectus with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
OpenAI submitted a confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, formally beginning the IPO process and signaling concrete progress toward a potential late-2026 public listing, which boosted market expectations for an IPO.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
1T–1.25T surges to 21%15%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, targeting a September 2026 debut, increasing market confidence in an IPO occurring within 2026 and influencing valuation expectations.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, clearing IPO path
1.5T+ jumps to 11%6%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and increasing confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects. This dismissal was perceived as a positive catalyst, briefly boosting market confidence in a successful IPO and higher valuation outcomes.
OpenAI reportedly prepares confidential IPO filing, sparking market optimism
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, targeting a September 2026 debut. This news increased market confidence in an IPO occurring within 2026 and boosted valuation expectations, causing a surge in the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' price from 50% to 63% and a jump in the 1T–1.25T and 1.5T+ brackets.
CNBC: OpenAI to file confidential IPO prospectus this week
1.5T+ surges to 47%16%
CNBC reported that OpenAI would file a confidential IPO prospectus within days, citing insiders. The imminent filing spurred a sharp rise in the market‑cap odds, moving the price from the low‑single digits to the mid‑teens.
Jury throws out Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI
1.5T+ jumps to 27%14%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal cloud. The verdict cleared the path for an IPO filing and boosted confidence that OpenAI could list in the coming months, driving the price toward the 1.5T+ bracket.
OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing, targeting September 2026 debut
1.25T–1.5T jumps to 14%11%
Multiple reports from credible sources including The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times confirmed OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus, aiming for a public listing as early as September 2026. This was a critical catalyst that sharply increased market confidence in the IPO happening in 2026 and influenced valuation expectations.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO prospectus, signaling imminent public offering
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 54%24%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus, leading to a spike in market optimism about an imminent public offering. Traders increased their expectations for an IPO announcement in late summer or fall 2026, driving up prices for IPO-related outcomes.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 72%45%
OpenAI officially submitted a confidential draft registration statement (Form S-1) to the SEC, marking a significant step toward going public and causing a spike in market expectations for an IPO announcement and eventual listing.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Plans to Confidentially File for IPO
1.5T+ jumps to 21%13%
Reports from major outlets revealed that OpenAI is preparing to confidentially file a draft of its IPO prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
OpenAI Prepares Imminent Confidential IPO Filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
1T–1.25T surges to 21%18%
Reports from major outlets revealed OpenAI is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to file a confidential draft IPO prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
Reports of OpenAI confidential IPO filing spark market optimism
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 54%23%
Reports emerged in May 2026 that OpenAI had confidentially filed for an IPO, leading to a spike in market optimism about an imminent public offering. Traders increased their expectations for an IPO announcement in late summer or fall 2026, driving up prices for IPO-related outcomes.
OpenAI prepares to file IPO prospectus amid legal victory
1.5T+ surges to 26%21%
Following the dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, the company accelerated IPO preparations, with reports indicating a confidential filing could occur within days. This legal clearance removed a major obstacle, boosting market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
Elon Musk's lawsuit dismissal clears legal hurdle for OpenAI IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI removed a major legal risk, allowing OpenAI to accelerate IPO preparations and boosting market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing amid competition and legal challenges
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to file confidentially for an IPO in the coming weeks, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley advising. This news heightened market anticipation for a late 2026 IPO and intensified competition with SpaceX and Anthropic, influencing market pricing dynamics.
OpenAI prepares to file confidential IPO prospectus amid SpaceX and Anthropic IPO plans
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to file confidentially for an IPO in the coming weeks, with a potential public debut in fall 2026. This news increased market optimism about OpenAI's IPO timeline and valuation, influencing trading odds and investor expectations.
Reports emerge of OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
News broke that OpenAI was preparing to file confidentially for an IPO, sparking market optimism about a potential late-2026 public offering and increasing prices for IPO-related outcomes.
Reports Reveal OpenAI is Preparing to Confidentially File for IPO Very Soon
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 27%45%
Media reports emerged that OpenAI is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential draft prospectus for an IPO, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
1.5T+ rises to 6%3%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal hurdle that had cast uncertainty over OpenAI's IPO plans. This dismissal likely accelerated market optimism about the IPO timeline.
Jury Dismisses Elon Musk's Federal Lawsuit Against OpenAI and Sam Altman
A federal jury unanimously dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, removing a major legal hurdle and clearing the path for an accelerated IPO timeline.
Elon Musk's Lawsuit Against OpenAI Dismissed by Jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%41%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, removing a major legal cloud and clearing the path for an IPO.
Federal Jury Rules in Favor of OpenAI and Sam Altman in Elon Musk Lawsuit
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 68%9%
A federal jury in Oakland rejected Elon Musk's claims against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman after less than two hours of deliberation, removing a major legal obstacle to the company's IPO plans.
Jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI over nonprofit mission breach
A federal jury unanimously dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman, ruling the claims were filed past the statute of limitations. This legal victory removed a significant risk to OpenAI's IPO plans, clearing the way for its public offering without the overhang of this high-profile dispute.
CFO Sarah Friar says IPO hygiene needed but no timeline set
750B–1T jumps to 21%8%
Friar warned that a public‑company transition would be “good hygiene,” slightly dampening optimism and pulling the 750B–1T outcome down to 21%.
OpenAI CFO advises delaying IPO to 2027 due to growth and financial concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%45%
Reports emerged that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar privately recommended postponing the IPO to 2027, citing unmet financial reporting standards and growth slowdown. This introduced uncertainty and tempered market enthusiasm for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI misses revenue and user growth targets, raising funding concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%41%
OpenAI fell short of internal revenue and user growth targets amid intensifying competition, causing concern among company leaders about sustaining data-center spending and impacting IPO market sentiment.
Microsoft and OpenAI Amend Partnership to Grant Cloud Flexibility
1.5T+ jumps to 11%6%
Microsoft and OpenAI updated their partnership terms, allowing OpenAI to serve products across any cloud provider and simplifying its corporate structure ahead of a potential listing.
Microsoft and OpenAI Amend Partnership to Grant Cloud Flexibility
1T–1.25T surges to 51%40%
Microsoft and OpenAI updated their partnership terms, allowing OpenAI to serve its products across any cloud provider and making the IP license non-exclusive, simplifying OpenAI's corporate structure ahead of an IPO.
Microsoft makes OpenAI AI‑license non‑exclusive
1T–1.25T rises to 9%3%
Microsoft announced a non‑exclusive AI licensing deal with OpenAI, removing a structural hurdle for a public listing and slightly boosting confidence in a >$1 trillion market cap.
Microsoft and OpenAI amend partnership, ending exclusivity and revenue sharing
Microsoft and OpenAI revised their partnership to end Microsoft's exclusive license and revenue share, allowing OpenAI to serve products across any cloud provider, reflecting strategic shifts ahead of IPO.
OpenAI and Microsoft amend partnership, ending exclusivity and capping revenue share
OpenAI and Microsoft announced an amended partnership agreement that ended Microsoft's exclusive access to OpenAI's AI models and capped revenue share payments. This allowed OpenAI to serve customers across multiple cloud providers, including Amazon, enhancing its enterprise reach and competitive positioning ahead of its IPO.
Microsoft and OpenAI Amend Partnership to Grant More Cloud Flexibility
1.25T–1.5T rises to 8%3%
Microsoft and OpenAI updated their partnership terms, allowing OpenAI to serve its products across any cloud provider and making the corporate structure cleaner ahead of a potential public listing.
CFO Sarah Friar suggests OpenAI may push IPO to 2027
500–750B dips to 1%2%
CFO Sarah Friar publicly hinted at delaying the IPO to 2027, tempering market enthusiasm and pulling price back toward the 500–750 B bracket.
Anthropic files confidential S‑1, intensifying race with OpenAI
1T–1.25T jumps to 10%5%
Anthropic filed a confidential S‑1 a week earlier, prompting investors to compare valuations and shifting the market toward the 1T–1.25T bracket.
OpenAI announces retail investor allocation for upcoming IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 43%11%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated the company will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, signaling preparation for a public offering and increasing market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CFO announces IPO share allocation for retail investors
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%6%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar stated the company will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, signaling preparation for a public offering and increasing market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI leadership reshuffle amid IPO preparations
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 63%5%
Bloomberg and other media reported significant leadership changes at OpenAI, including COO role shift and key executives taking leave. This raised market concerns about execution risks ahead of the IPO, impacting valuation confidence.
OpenAI Closes Record-Breaking $122 Billion Funding Round at $852 Billion Valuation
750B–1T rises to 10%1%
OpenAI officially closed its massive funding round with $122 billion in committed capital, establishing a post-money private valuation of $852 billion and anchoring expectations for its public debut.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in funding round
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 44%6%
OpenAI closed a massive $122 billion funding round, boosting its valuation to $852 billion and strengthening its financial position ahead of the IPO. This funding round increased market optimism about the IPO prospects.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
1.5T+ plunges to 11%39%
OpenAI secured $122 billion in funding led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, boosting its valuation to $852 billion and fueling expectations for a high-value IPO.
OpenAI closes record-breaking $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
OpenAI closed a $122 billion funding round led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, valuing the company at $852 billion. This massive capital infusion supports OpenAI's infrastructure expansion and product development, reinforcing its market position and fueling expectations for a high-valuation IPO.
OpenAI closes $122 bn funding round at $852 bn valuation
1.5T+ jumps to 18%11%
A $122 bn funding round pegged OpenAI’s private valuation at $852 bn, raising expectations that the IPO could achieve a $1 tn market cap.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 70%1%
In March 2026, OpenAI secured a $122 billion capital raise at an $852 billion post-money valuation, reinforcing expectations for a near-term IPO. This large funding round was a significant signal to markets about the company's valuation and readiness for public markets.
OpenAI raises $122 billion, valuation jumps to $852 billion
1T–1.25T jumps to 12%5%
OpenAI disclosed a $122 billion funding round valuing it at $852 billion. The valuation lift fed expectations of a trillion‑dollar IPO, nudging the market toward the 1T–1.25T bracket.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
750B–1T jumps to 18%9%
OpenAI secured a massive funding round backed by major investors like Amazon and NVIDIA, valuing the company at $852 billion post-money. This substantial capital injection and valuation reinforced market expectations for a high-value IPO, supporting optimism for a $1 trillion-plus market cap.
OpenAI Raises $122 Billion in Funding Round at $852 Billion Valuation
<500B drops to 3%9%
OpenAI disclosed a massive committed funding round that valued the private company at $852 billion, establishing a high baseline valuation ahead of its anticipated public debut.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation with retail investor access
<500B jumps to 8%6%
OpenAI completed a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, including $3 billion allocated to retail investors for the first time. This milestone increased market confidence in OpenAI's valuation and IPO prospects.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
500–750B jumps to 50%7%
OpenAI completed a massive funding round at an $852 billion valuation, reinforcing its private market valuation and providing capital ahead of the IPO. This event supported market expectations for a high valuation IPO but also highlighted the company's reliance on private funding.
OpenAI closes record-breaking $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
OpenAI announced closing a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, the largest private funding round in history, which bolstered market confidence in the company's valuation and IPO prospects.
OpenAI raises $122 billion at $852 billion post-money valuation
1.5T+ rises to 6%2%
OpenAI's massive funding round at an $852 billion valuation reinforced market expectations for a high IPO valuation, driving up probabilities for the $1 trillion+ market cap bracket.
OpenAI Raises $122 Billion Funding Round at $852 Billion Valuation
750B–1T rises to 14%4%
OpenAI secured a massive committed funding round that valued the private company at $852 billion, significantly lifting expectations for its eventual public market capitalization.
OpenAI raises additional $10 billion in funding round
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%7%
OpenAI secured an additional $10 billion in funding, signaling strong investor support and improving financial runway ahead of its anticipated IPO. This bolstered market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI shuts down Sora video app, ending Disney partnership
OpenAI discontinued its AI video generation app Sora due to unsustainable costs and low revenue, leading to the collapse of Disney's $1 billion investment and licensing deal. This marked a strategic pivot by OpenAI to focus on enterprise and coding tools ahead of its IPO, affecting market sentiment on its consumer product viability.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 55%25%
This massive funding round significantly increased market confidence in OpenAI's financial strength and IPO prospects, driving up the market price for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI secures additional $10 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 68%3%
The large funding round reinforced OpenAI's high valuation and financial runway, boosting market confidence in the company's ability to sustain growth and prepare for a public offering.
OpenAI Closes Historic $122 Billion Funding Round Pegging Valuation at $852 Billion
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 61%4%
OpenAI secured the largest funding round in Silicon Valley history, raising $122 billion and boosting its private valuation to $852 billion. This massive capital injection revived investor confidence in a late-2026 IPO timeline.
OpenAI announces acquisition of developer-tool startup Astral
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%7%
OpenAI's acquisition of Astral was viewed as a strategic move to strengthen its Codex coding assistant, boosting market optimism for a 2026 IPO and lifting the price for the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome.
OpenAI confirms confidential IPO filing will be submitted within weeks
1.5T+ jumps to 11%8%
OpenAI confirmed a confidential SEC filing is imminent, causing the 1.5T+ probability to jump from 3% to 11% as traders priced in a September debut.
OpenAI Secures Strategic Partnerships and Massive Funding Round
750B–1T jumps to 18%8%
OpenAI announced a strategic partnership with Amazon and raised a massive $110 billion funding round, boosting its private valuation and market confidence.
OpenAI announces strategic partnership with Amazon and Pentagon deal
750B–1T rises to 9%3%
OpenAI's partnership with Amazon and a deal with the Pentagon demonstrated strong enterprise adoption and revenue growth potential, supporting higher valuation expectations for the IPO.
OpenAI strikes deal with Pentagon and announces Amazon partnership
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 39%4%
OpenAI announced strategic partnerships with the Pentagon and Amazon, signaling business growth and strengthening its enterprise position ahead of IPO preparations, positively impacting market sentiment.
OpenAI announces strategic partnership with Amazon and Pentagon deal
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 72%2%
OpenAI's partnership with Amazon and a deal with the Pentagon signaled business expansion and potential revenue growth, positively influencing investor sentiment about the company's prospects ahead of its IPO.
OpenAI reports $21.4 billion revenue at end of 2025, fueling IPO speculation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 69%1%
OpenAI announced annualized revenue of $21.4 billion at the end of 2025, signaling strong growth and increasing market expectations for a potential IPO. This financial milestone supported higher valuations and increased market interest in the IPO timing and size.
OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO at $1 trillion valuation
1T–1.25T jumps to 14%8%
The Wall Street Journal reported OpenAI's plans for a fourth quarter 2026 IPO targeting a $1 trillion valuation, with major Wall Street banks engaged. This reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO and influenced valuation bracket probabilities.
IPO rumors intensify amid competitive AI landscape and finance hiring
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 81%18%
Speculation about OpenAI's IPO timing increased due to hiring in finance and accounting teams, signaling preparation for public listing and fueling market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI plans fourth-quarter IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 38%4%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was targeting a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO, increasing market optimism for a late 2026 public offering despite ongoing challenges.
OpenAI Plans Fourth-Quarter 2026 IPO Amid Intense Competition
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 47%23%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was targeting a late 2026 public debut, accelerating its timeline to capture market demand ahead of rivals like Anthropic.
OpenAI announces plans for fourth-quarter IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%5%
OpenAI publicly indicated plans for a potential IPO in late 2026, focusing on enterprise growth and positioning ChatGPT as a productivity tool. This announcement increased market optimism for a 2026 IPO, reflected in rising probabilities.
SoftBank announces up to $30B investment in OpenAI
1T–1.25T rises to 7%2%
SoftBank's announcement of a potential $30 billion investment in OpenAI increased confidence in the company's capital raising ability ahead of an IPO, positively impacting market expectations for a successful public offering.
SoftBank commits $30 billion to OpenAI
750B–1T rises to 6%3%
SoftBank announced a $30 billion follow‑on investment in OpenAI, reinforcing its capital base and nudging market expectations toward the 750B–1T range.
OpenAI CFO reports annualized revenue surpassing $20 billion in 2025
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar confirmed that the company's annualized revenue exceeded $20 billion in 2025, reflecting rapid growth and supporting high valuation expectations ahead of the IPO.
OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation amid financial challenges
Reports in early 2026 indicated OpenAI was preparing for a fourth quarter IPO targeting a $1 trillion valuation, despite facing significant losses and high infrastructure spending. This news shaped market expectations for a late 2026 IPO and influenced valuation brackets.
OpenAI CFO expresses reservations about 2026 IPO readiness
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 46%24%
Reports emerged that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar had concerns about the company being ready for an IPO in 2026, highlighting internal divisions and financial challenges. This likely contributed to market uncertainty and a decrease in near-term IPO optimism.
OpenAI CFO states IPO 'not on the cards right now'
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 63%5%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar publicly stated that an IPO was not imminent, tempering market expectations and causing a decline in IPO likelihood pricing.
Reports suggest OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation
1T–1.25T surges to 70%20%
Market reports emerged indicating OpenAI's plan to file for an IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026 with a target valuation around $1 trillion. This news increased market optimism about the IPO occurring within the year and boosted valuation bracket probabilities.
OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation
1T–1.25T jumps to 20%14%
Reports in early 2026 suggested OpenAI was targeting a fourth quarter 2026 IPO with a market valuation around $1 trillion, raising market optimism about a large IPO.
OpenAI revenue tops $20 bn annual run‑rate
1T–1.25T jumps to 11%5%
OpenAI announced annualised revenue had passed $20 billion, reinforcing confidence in a large‑cap IPO and shifting price toward the 1 T–1.25 T bracket.
OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation
1T–1.25T jumps to 12%5%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was targeting a fourth quarter 2026 IPO with a potential valuation around $1 trillion, raising market expectations for a large and imminent public offering. This news increased confidence in the IPO occurring within 2026.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion funding at $830 billion valuation
OpenAI entered talks to raise up to $100 billion in a funding round that could value the company at up to $830 billion, signaling strong investor interest but also highlighting the company's significant capital needs and influencing market expectations for its IPO valuation.
Sam Altman Expresses Hesitancy Over Leading a Publicly Traded OpenAI
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated he has zero percent excitement about being the CEO of a public company, reinforcing the likelihood that an IPO may be delayed beyond 2026.
OpenAI to spend $20 bn on data‑center chips with Microsoft partnership
500–750B drops to 4%8%
OpenAI announced a $20 billion infrastructure spend with Microsoft, raising concerns about cash burn and nudging the market toward the 500–750B bracket.
Disney invests $1 billion in OpenAI and licenses characters for Sora
Disney and OpenAI reached a three-year licensing agreement allowing OpenAI's Sora video platform to use over 200 Disney characters. Disney also made a $1 billion equity investment in OpenAI, marking a significant partnership that boosted OpenAI's profile and potential valuation. However, this deal was later impacted by Sora's shutdown.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion in new funding at $830 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 68%3%
By December 2025, reports indicated OpenAI was seeking $100 billion in new funding at an $830 billion valuation, fueling speculation about a potential IPO valuation near $1 trillion and increasing market interest in the IPO.
Goldman and Morgan Stanley hired to prepare OpenAI IPO filing
1.5T+ jumps to 18%13%
Reports that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were advising OpenAI on an imminent confidential filing lifted optimism, nudging the market toward higher‑valuation brackets.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Says IPO Is Not on the Cards Right Now
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 70%16%
Speaking at the WSJ Tech Live conference, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated that an initial public offering is not in the startup's near-term plans, cooling down immediate IPO expectations.
Jury throws out Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 45%10%
A jury dismissed Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a legal cloud and pushing the "No IPO" probability down sharply (from 55% to 45%).
OpenAI Lays Groundwork for IPO Valued at Up to $1 Trillion
1T–1.25T surges to 18%16%
Reuters reported that OpenAI is laying the groundwork for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, with plans to file as early as the second half of 2026.
Reuters reports OpenAI considering IPO filing in second half of 2026 or 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 68%5%
A Reuters report indicated OpenAI was considering filing for an IPO in the second half of 2026 or in 2027, which influenced market expectations about the timing of the IPO.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman signals IPO as most likely future but timing uncertain
In a livestream on October 28, 2025, CEO Sam Altman stated that an IPO was the most likely future for OpenAI, though the exact timing remained uncertain. This public statement increased market attention and speculation about the IPO timeline, influencing early market pricing.
OpenAI lays groundwork for IPO with potential $1 trillion valuation
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, marking it as one of the largest IPOs ever. CEO Sam Altman indicated that an IPO was the most likely path given capital needs, fueling market speculation and price movements.
Report suggests OpenAI considering IPO filing in second half of 2026 or 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
Reuters reported that OpenAI was considering filing for an IPO in the second half of 2026 or in 2027, fueling early market speculation about the timing of the public offering and influencing market prices for IPO-related outcomes.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman states IPO is likely but timing uncertain
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 62%12%
On October 28, 2025, Sam Altman indicated that an IPO was the most likely future for OpenAI, though no specific timing was set. This statement influenced market expectations about the IPO timing and valuation.
OpenAI considers 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation target
1T–1.25T plunges to 6%44%
Reuters reported that OpenAI was laying groundwork for a juggernaut IPO with a potential valuation of up to $1 trillion, signaling increased market anticipation for a public offering in 2026. This news likely contributed to early market pricing shifts favoring a high valuation outcome.
OpenAI eyes second‑half‑2026 IPO filing, WSJ reports
1.5T+ rises to 4%3%
A Reuters report cited The Wall Street Journal saying OpenAI was considering filing for an IPO in the second half of 2026. The news lifted optimism about a near‑term listing, pushing the market‑cap odds toward the higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI Finalizes Restructuring Into Delaware Public Benefit Corporation
1T–1.25T jumps to 13%12%
OpenAI completed its transition from a nonprofit to a Delaware-based Public Benefit Corporation, a crucial structural step designed to clear legal hurdles and attract institutional capital for a traditional IPO.
Sam Altman states IPO is likely but timing uncertain
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 53%3%
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman publicly acknowledged that an IPO is the most likely future for OpenAI, though the exact timing remained uncertain. This statement increased market awareness and speculation about a potential IPO, influencing early market pricing.
OpenAI Finalizes Restructuring into a Public Benefit Corporation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 59%26%
OpenAI completed its transition to a Delaware-based Public Benefit Corporation, clearing legal hurdles and establishing a structure to attract large institutional investments for a traditional IPO.
OpenAI completes restructuring to Public Benefit Corporation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%6%
OpenAI finalized its conversion to a Public Benefit Corporation, addressing governance and capital-raising challenges, which was seen as a positive step toward an eventual IPO and increased market confidence in a 2026 listing.
OpenAI completes restructuring into a public benefit corporation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 68%18%
OpenAI completed a restructuring in October 2025 creating OpenAI Group PBC, a public benefit corporation, which gave the company a clearer path to raising capital and preparing for an IPO. This structural change was significant for investor confidence and IPO prospects.
OpenAI completes restructuring into Public Benefit Corporation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
On October 28, 2025, OpenAI restructured its for-profit entity into a Public Benefit Corporation, with the nonprofit OpenAI Foundation retaining governance control. This corporate restructuring was a key step toward preparing for a public offering, initially boosting market optimism about an upcoming IPO.
OpenAI converts to Public Benefit Corporation to facilitate IPO readiness
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
OpenAI's transition to a Delaware-based Public Benefit Corporation addressed governance challenges and was a crucial step toward enabling institutional investment and an eventual IPO, influencing early market expectations.
OpenAI converts to a Public Benefit Corporation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 73%11%
OpenAI officially converted from a nonprofit‑controlled hybrid to a Public Benefit Corporation, removing a structural barrier to a traditional IPO and prompting traders to raise odds of a public listing.
OpenAI Completes Restructuring Into Delaware Public Benefit Corporation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 59%20%
OpenAI finalized its transition from a non-profit to a public benefit corporation, a crucial structural step designed to clear legal hurdles and attract institutional capital for a future IPO.
OpenAI Restructures to Public Benefit Corporation Removing Investor Return Caps
1T–1.25T surges to 24%23%
OpenAI transitioned from a capped-profit hybrid to a Public Benefit Corporation, removing the 100x investor return cap and clearing a major structural hurdle for a future public listing.
OpenAI completes restructuring into a Delaware-based Public Benefit Corporation
OpenAI finalized a major restructuring into a Public Benefit Corporation, allowing the original non-profit foundation to retain a 26% equity stake and enabling the company to raise capital more effectively. This structural change was a crucial step toward enabling a future IPO and influenced market expectations for OpenAI's public listing.
OpenAI completes transition to public benefit corporation, enabling IPO plans
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 74%6%
OpenAI's corporate restructuring from a nonprofit to a public benefit corporation removed a key legal barrier to going public, paving the way for an IPO. This milestone increased market speculation about a potential IPO and valuation targets around $1 trillion.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman states IPO is likely but timing uncertain
In a livestream on October 28, 2025, CEO Sam Altman indicated that an IPO was the most likely future for OpenAI, though the exact timing was uncertain. This statement likely influenced market expectations by confirming IPO plans without committing to a date.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
1.5T+ jumps to 11%7%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit removed a significant legal hurdle for OpenAI's IPO plans, boosting market confidence in a successful IPO and higher valuation outcomes.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 78%15%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit removed a significant legal overhang for OpenAI, improving market sentiment about the company's IPO prospects and reducing uncertainty around its corporate structure.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman states IPO is likely but timing uncertain
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
Sam Altman publicly indicated that an IPO is the most likely future for OpenAI, though no specific timing was confirmed. This statement influenced market expectations by confirming IPO intent but maintaining uncertainty about the date, causing moderate price fluctuations.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO prospectus draft, signaling imminent public offering
1.5T+ rises to 8%4%
Reports emerged that OpenAI planned to file a draft IPO prospectus soon, sparking market optimism about a near-term IPO and driving up the probability of a high valuation IPO. This filing indicated serious progress toward going public, influencing market pricing positively for outcomes above $1 trillion.
OpenAI valued at $500 billion in employee share sale
<500B plunges to 11%32%
An employee share sale in October 2025 valued OpenAI at approximately $500 billion, setting a private market benchmark that influenced early market expectations for the IPO valuation.
Reports emerge of OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
News surfaced that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file for an IPO, sparking initial market speculation about a potential public offering and increasing the probability of an IPO announcement before the end of 2026.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, clearing IPO path
1.5T+ jumps to 11%7%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and increasing confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects. This dismissal was perceived as a positive catalyst, briefly boosting market confidence in a successful IPO and higher valuation outcomes.
Reports emerge of OpenAI preparing for IPO confidential filing
1.5T+ plunges to 4%46%
News surfaced that OpenAI was planning to confidentially file IPO paperwork soon, sparking increased market speculation about a 2026 public offering and boosting confidence in a high valuation outcome.
OpenAI transitions to Public Benefit Corporation structure
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
On October 28, 2025, OpenAI transitioned to a Public Benefit Corporation, a key structural change that set the stage for future public offerings. This milestone was seen as a foundational step towards an IPO, influencing market expectations positively.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman tours AI data center amid IPO speculation
Sam Altman, OpenAI's CEO, was publicly seen touring the Stargate AI data center, signaling ongoing operational progress and fueling early market speculation about OpenAI's IPO prospects.
OpenAI begins confidential IPO filing preparation with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley
1.5T+ plunges to 4%46%
OpenAI disclosed that it was working with investment banks on a confidential filing, triggering the first rise in the 1.5T+ outcome from 50% to 4% as traders priced in the possibility of a record‑size IPO.
Market opens with neutral expectations for OpenAI IPO
Early market entry price (50 %) reflects baseline uncertainty before any concrete IPO news.
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