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icon for Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

icon for Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

Fernando Dias da Costa 15.6%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 5.0%

José Mário Vaz 2.6%

Baciro Djá 1.6%

Polymarket

$339,078 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa 15.6%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 5.0%

José Mário Vaz 2.6%

Baciro Djá 1.6%

Polymarket

$339,078 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa

$58,092 Vol.

16%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$90,865 Vol.

12%

José Mário Vaz

$22,282 Vol.

3%

Baciro Djá

$14,539 Vol.

2%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$19,458 Vol.

2%

João Bernardo Vieira

$16,799 Vol.

2%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$18,792 Vol.

2%

João de Deus Mendes

$17,879 Vol.

2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$19,952 Vol.

1%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$18,350 Vol.

1%

Siga Batista

$25,652 Vol.

1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$16,419 Vol.

1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).The December 6, 2026, presidential election follows a November 2025 coup that annulled results from a contested vote, a military-led transition under General Horta Inta-A Na Man, and an August 2026 constitutional referendum that expanded executive authority while shrinking parliament. Fernando Dias da Costa, backed by elements of the former opposition PAI-Terra Ranka alliance after PAIGC exclusion, and former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló lead a crowded field of over a dozen candidates under the two-round system. Trader consensus shows no dominant contender because recent instability, residency eligibility rules, the absence of public polling, and fragmented party support keep probabilities dispersed. Upcoming campaign developments, endorsements, or shifts in military posture could consolidate support ahead of the vote.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volumen
$339,078
Enddatum
23. Nov. 2025
Markt eröffnet
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).The December 6, 2026, presidential election follows a November 2025 coup that annulled results from a contested vote, a military-led transition under General Horta Inta-A Na Man, and an August 2026 constitutional referendum that expanded executive authority while shrinking parliament. Fernando Dias da Costa, backed by elements of the former opposition PAI-Terra Ranka alliance after PAIGC exclusion, and former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló lead a crowded field of over a dozen candidates under the two-round system. Trader consensus shows no dominant contender because recent instability, residency eligibility rules, the absence of public polling, and fragmented party support keep probabilities dispersed. Upcoming campaign developments, endorsements, or shifts in military posture could consolidate support ahead of the vote.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volumen
$339,078
Enddatum
23. Nov. 2025
Markt eröffnet
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...

Verwandte

icon for Wird die Platforma Reupblicana „Nô Kumpu Guiné“ bei der Wahl zur Nationalversammlung von Guinea-Bissau 2025 die meisten Sitze gewinnen?

Wird die Platforma Reupblicana „Nô Kumpu Guiné“ bei der Wahl zur Nationalversammlung von Guinea-Bissau 2025 die meisten Sitze gewinnen?

27%
Ja
icon for Wird José Maria Neves die Präsidentschaftswahl in Kap Verde gewinnen?

Wird José Maria Neves die Präsidentschaftswahl in Kap Verde gewinnen?

77%
Ja
icon for Wird Flávio Bolsonaro in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den zweiten Platz belegen?

Wird Flávio Bolsonaro in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den zweiten Platz belegen?

89%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 12 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Fernando Dias da Costa" mit 16%, gefolgt von „Umaro Sissoco Embaló" mit 12%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 16¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 16% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $339.1K generiert, seit der Markt am Nov 6, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 12 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" ist „Fernando Dias da Costa" mit 16%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 16% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Umaro Sissoco Embaló" mit 12%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.