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icon for Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

icon for Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

Fernando Dias da Costa 15.4%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 5.0%

José Mário Vaz 2.6%

Honório Augusto Lopes 1.6%

Polymarket

$339,080 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa 15.4%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 5.0%

José Mário Vaz 2.6%

Honório Augusto Lopes 1.6%

Polymarket

$339,080 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa

$58,094 Vol.

25%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$90,865 Vol.

12%

José Mário Vaz

$22,282 Vol.

3%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$18,792 Vol.

2%

João de Deus Mendes

$17,879 Vol.

2%

Baciro Djá

$14,539 Vol.

2%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$19,458 Vol.

2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$19,952 Vol.

2%

João Bernardo Vieira

$16,799 Vol.

2%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$18,350 Vol.

2%

Siga Batista

$25,652 Vol.

2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$16,419 Vol.

1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).**The December 2026 presidential election in Guinea-Bissau follows the November 2025 vote annulled by a military coup that ousted incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló and installed a transitional government under Gen. Horta Inta-A Na Man.** Fernando Dias da Costa leads trader pricing at 25% amid a fragmented field of twelve candidates, reflecting his backing from the PAIGC-linked PAI–Terra Ranka coalition after that group’s own candidate was disqualified. Recent approval of a new constitution—passed by referendum in early September with roughly 70% support—expands presidential powers over cabinet and parliament while imposing stricter candidate residency rules, reshaping the contest ahead of the December 6 vote. Embaló’s lower odds and the even distribution among remaining contenders highlight vote-splitting risks and ongoing uncertainty over institutional stability and coalition consolidation in the post-coup environment.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volumen
$339,080
Enddatum
23. Nov. 2025
Markt eröffnet
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).**The December 2026 presidential election in Guinea-Bissau follows the November 2025 vote annulled by a military coup that ousted incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló and installed a transitional government under Gen. Horta Inta-A Na Man.** Fernando Dias da Costa leads trader pricing at 25% amid a fragmented field of twelve candidates, reflecting his backing from the PAIGC-linked PAI–Terra Ranka coalition after that group’s own candidate was disqualified. Recent approval of a new constitution—passed by referendum in early September with roughly 70% support—expands presidential powers over cabinet and parliament while imposing stricter candidate residency rules, reshaping the contest ahead of the December 6 vote. Embaló’s lower odds and the even distribution among remaining contenders highlight vote-splitting risks and ongoing uncertainty over institutional stability and coalition consolidation in the post-coup environment.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volumen
$339,080
Enddatum
23. Nov. 2025
Markt eröffnet
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...

Verwandte

icon for Wird FREPASNA die meisten Sitze bei der Wahl zur Nationalversammlung von Guinea-Bissau 2025 gewinnen?

Wird FREPASNA die meisten Sitze bei der Wahl zur Nationalversammlung von Guinea-Bissau 2025 gewinnen?

18%
Ja
icon for Wird José Maria Neves die Präsidentschaftswahl in Kap Verde gewinnen?

Wird José Maria Neves die Präsidentschaftswahl in Kap Verde gewinnen?

79%
Ja
icon for Wird Flávio Bolsonaro in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den zweiten Platz belegen?

Wird Flávio Bolsonaro in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den zweiten Platz belegen?

90%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 12 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Fernando Dias da Costa" mit 25%, gefolgt von „Umaro Sissoco Embaló" mit 12%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 25¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 25% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $339.1K generiert, seit der Markt am Nov 6, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 12 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" ist „Fernando Dias da Costa" mit 25%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 25% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Umaro Sissoco Embaló" mit 12%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.