Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent historical support for Democratic candidates in federal races. Incumbent Ed Case holds the seat with established name recognition and institutional backing, while a contested August 8 primary against challengers including Jarrett Keohokalole determines the party's nominee ahead of the November general election. Republican contenders face structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance in presidential and statewide contests has long exceeded 70 percent. Trader consensus on a Democratic victory aligns with these baseline voting patterns and the absence of recent developments capable of producing a competitive general-election environment. A major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unprecedented national partisan shift could theoretically alter the trajectory, though such factors have shown limited impact in comparable safe seats.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHI-01 Wahlsieger
HI-01 Wahlsieger
$28,336 Vol.
$28,336 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
95%
Republikanische Partei
6%
$28,336 Vol.
$28,336 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$14,677 Vol.
95%
Republikanische Partei
$13,658 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent historical support for Democratic candidates in federal races. Incumbent Ed Case holds the seat with established name recognition and institutional backing, while a contested August 8 primary against challengers including Jarrett Keohokalole determines the party's nominee ahead of the November general election. Republican contenders face structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance in presidential and statewide contests has long exceeded 70 percent. Trader consensus on a Democratic victory aligns with these baseline voting patterns and the absence of recent developments capable of producing a competitive general-election environment. A major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unprecedented national partisan shift could theoretically alter the trajectory, though such factors have shown limited impact in comparable safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$28,336Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent historical support for Democratic candidates in federal races. Incumbent Ed Case holds the seat with established name recognition and institutional backing, while a contested August 8 primary against challengers including Jarrett Keohokalole determines the party's nominee ahead of the November general election. Republican contenders face structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance in presidential and statewide contests has long exceeded 70 percent. Trader consensus on a Democratic victory aligns with these baseline voting patterns and the absence of recent developments capable of producing a competitive general-election environment. A major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unprecedented national partisan shift could theoretically alter the trajectory, though such factors have shown limited impact in comparable safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$28,336Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent historical support for Democratic candidates in federal races. Incumbent Ed Case holds the seat with established name recognition and institutional backing, while a contested August 8 primary against challengers including Jarrett Keohokalole determines the party's nominee ahead of the November general election. Republican contenders face structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance in presidential and statewide contests has long exceeded 70 percent. Trader consensus on a Democratic victory aligns with these baseline voting patterns and the absence of recent developments capable of producing a competitive general-election environment. A major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unprecedented national partisan shift could theoretically alter the trajectory, though such factors have shown limited impact in comparable safe seats.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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