Hawaii's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical results favoring the party. Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, who won reelection in 2024 with 66.5% of the vote, faces primary challengers ahead of the August 8, 2026, contest but holds a clear edge in a district covering rural Oahu and outer islands. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, underscoring limited Republican competitiveness, with Brenton Awa as the leading GOP primary candidate. The market's heavy Democratic consensus aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major recent shifts. Potential disruptions include a late Democratic primary upset, significant national partisan swing, or unforeseen candidate issues before the November general election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHI-02 Wahlsieger
HI-02 Wahlsieger
$58,375 Vol.
$58,375 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
95%
Republikanische Partei
7%
$58,375 Vol.
$58,375 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$43,039 Vol.
95%
Republikanische Partei
$15,336 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical results favoring the party. Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, who won reelection in 2024 with 66.5% of the vote, faces primary challengers ahead of the August 8, 2026, contest but holds a clear edge in a district covering rural Oahu and outer islands. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, underscoring limited Republican competitiveness, with Brenton Awa as the leading GOP primary candidate. The market's heavy Democratic consensus aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major recent shifts. Potential disruptions include a late Democratic primary upset, significant national partisan swing, or unforeseen candidate issues before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$58,375Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical results favoring the party. Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, who won reelection in 2024 with 66.5% of the vote, faces primary challengers ahead of the August 8, 2026, contest but holds a clear edge in a district covering rural Oahu and outer islands. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, underscoring limited Republican competitiveness, with Brenton Awa as the leading GOP primary candidate. The market's heavy Democratic consensus aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major recent shifts. Potential disruptions include a late Democratic primary upset, significant national partisan swing, or unforeseen candidate issues before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$58,375Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical results favoring the party. Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, who won reelection in 2024 with 66.5% of the vote, faces primary challengers ahead of the August 8, 2026, contest but holds a clear edge in a district covering rural Oahu and outer islands. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, underscoring limited Republican competitiveness, with Brenton Awa as the leading GOP primary candidate. The market's heavy Democratic consensus aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major recent shifts. Potential disruptions include a late Democratic primary upset, significant national partisan swing, or unforeseen candidate issues before the November general election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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