Incumbent Democratic Rep. Jill Tokuda's commanding position in the HI-02 race stems from her decisive primary victory on August 8, where she captured over 91 percent of the vote against limited challengers, and the district's entrenched partisan lean. Hawaii's 2nd district, encompassing rural Oahu and the neighbor islands, carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+12 and has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Republican nominee state Sen. Brenton Awa advances unopposed in his primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat last won by a Republican in the 1980s. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with any shift likely requiring an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development, or national political realignment before the November 3 general election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHI-02 Wahlsieger
HI-02 Wahlsieger
$63,525 Vol.
$63,525 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
96%
Republikanische Partei
6%
$63,525 Vol.
$63,525 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$43,095 Vol.
96%
Republikanische Partei
$20,430 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Jill Tokuda's commanding position in the HI-02 race stems from her decisive primary victory on August 8, where she captured over 91 percent of the vote against limited challengers, and the district's entrenched partisan lean. Hawaii's 2nd district, encompassing rural Oahu and the neighbor islands, carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+12 and has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Republican nominee state Sen. Brenton Awa advances unopposed in his primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat last won by a Republican in the 1980s. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with any shift likely requiring an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development, or national political realignment before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$63,525Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Jill Tokuda's commanding position in the HI-02 race stems from her decisive primary victory on August 8, where she captured over 91 percent of the vote against limited challengers, and the district's entrenched partisan lean. Hawaii's 2nd district, encompassing rural Oahu and the neighbor islands, carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+12 and has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Republican nominee state Sen. Brenton Awa advances unopposed in his primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat last won by a Republican in the 1980s. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with any shift likely requiring an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development, or national political realignment before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$63,525Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Rep. Jill Tokuda's commanding position in the HI-02 race stems from her decisive primary victory on August 8, where she captured over 91 percent of the vote against limited challengers, and the district's entrenched partisan lean. Hawaii's 2nd district, encompassing rural Oahu and the neighbor islands, carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+12 and has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Republican nominee state Sen. Brenton Awa advances unopposed in his primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat last won by a Republican in the 1980s. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with any shift likely requiring an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development, or national political realignment before the November 3 general election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen