Official observations from Murtala Muhammed International Airport (DNMM) in Lagos, reported via METAR at midday on May 1, confirm the highest temperature reached 34°C, driving the market-implied 100% probability for this outcome and near-certainty among traders risking real capital. This peak aligns with NiMet's 2026 seasonal climate prediction of warmer-than-average daytime temperatures across southern Nigeria in May, amid lingering dry-season heat before the rainy onset, where historical May highs at DNMM average 30-32°C but urban heat island effects in densely built Lagos often elevate readings. Model forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF had anticipated highs near 33°C, with low humidity amplifying heat index values. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc quality control revisions by NiMet if sensor discrepancies emerge across synoptic stations, though verified aviation data provides strong evidential support. Final NiMet daily bulletin expected soon for market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Lagos am 1. Mai?
Höchste Temperatur in Lagos am 1. Mai?
34°C 100.0%
28°C oder weniger <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$36,982 Vol.
$36,982 Vol.
1. Mai 2026
28°C oder weniger
Nein
29°C
Nein
30°C
Nein
31°C
Nein
32°C
Nein
33°C
Nein
34°C
Ja
35°C
Nein
36°C
Nein
37°C
Nein
38°C oder höher
Nein
34°C 100.0%
28°C oder weniger <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$36,982 Vol.
$36,982 Vol.
1. Mai 2026
28°C oder weniger
$15,274 Vol.
Nein
29°C
$959 Vol.
Nein
30°C
$1,390 Vol.
Nein
31°C
$1,293 Vol.
Nein
32°C
$2,091 Vol.
Nein
33°C
$1,697 Vol.
Nein
34°C
$2,788 Vol.
Ja
35°C
$3,225 Vol.
Nein
36°C
$2,482 Vol.
Nein
37°C
$2,785 Vol.
Nein
38°C oder höher
$2,996 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Murtala Muhammed International Airport (DNMM) in Lagos, reported via METAR at midday on May 1, confirm the highest temperature reached 34°C, driving the market-implied 100% probability for this outcome and near-certainty among traders risking real capital. This peak aligns with NiMet's 2026 seasonal climate prediction of warmer-than-average daytime temperatures across southern Nigeria in May, amid lingering dry-season heat before the rainy onset, where historical May highs at DNMM average 30-32°C but urban heat island effects in densely built Lagos often elevate readings. Model forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF had anticipated highs near 33°C, with low humidity amplifying heat index values. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc quality control revisions by NiMet if sensor discrepancies emerge across synoptic stations, though verified aviation data provides strong evidential support. Final NiMet daily bulletin expected soon for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 29, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volumen
$36,982Enddatum
1. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 29, 2026, 12:12 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Murtala Muhammed International Airport (DNMM) in Lagos, reported via METAR at midday on May 1, confirm the highest temperature reached 34°C, driving the market-implied 100% probability for this outcome and near-certainty among traders risking real capital. This peak aligns with NiMet's 2026 seasonal climate prediction of warmer-than-average daytime temperatures across southern Nigeria in May, amid lingering dry-season heat before the rainy onset, where historical May highs at DNMM average 30-32°C but urban heat island effects in densely built Lagos often elevate readings. Model forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF had anticipated highs near 33°C, with low humidity amplifying heat index values. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc quality control revisions by NiMet if sensor discrepancies emerge across synoptic stations, though verified aviation data provides strong evidential support. Final NiMet daily bulletin expected soon for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$36,982Enddatum
1. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 29, 2026, 12:12 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Official observations from Murtala Muhammed International Airport (DNMM) in Lagos, reported via METAR at midday on May 1, confirm the highest temperature reached 34°C, driving the market-implied 100% probability for this outcome and near-certainty among traders risking real capital. This peak aligns with NiMet's 2026 seasonal climate prediction of warmer-than-average daytime temperatures across southern Nigeria in May, amid lingering dry-season heat before the rainy onset, where historical May highs at DNMM average 30-32°C but urban heat island effects in densely built Lagos often elevate readings. Model forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF had anticipated highs near 33°C, with low humidity amplifying heat index values. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc quality control revisions by NiMet if sensor discrepancies emerge across synoptic stations, though verified aviation data provides strong evidential support. Final NiMet daily bulletin expected soon for market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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