Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on April 18, with 96.8% implied probability, reflecting strong alignment across forecast models from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international sources like AccuWeather and Weather.com projecting daytime highs of 29–30°C. This positioning stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge over central Mexico fostering clear skies and radiative heating during the late dry season, where April climatological averages already hover near 26°C—exceeded in 80% of historical observations. Recent observational data shows warming trends, with April 16 highs around 23°C amid partly cloudy conditions giving way to sunnier outlooks. Realistic challenges include incoming Pacific moisture triggering heavier chubascos (5–25 mm showers) or unforecast northerly winds increasing cloud cover, potentially capping peaks below 26°C; monitor SMN's 96-hour updates for refinements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 18?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 18?
26°C or higher 95.3%
24°C 1.8%
25°C 1.7%
20°C <1%
NEU
NEU
18. Apr. 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
2%
26°C or higher
95%
26°C or higher 95.3%
24°C 1.8%
25°C 1.7%
20°C <1%
NEU
NEU
18. Apr. 2026
16°C or below
$623 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$454 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$503 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$577 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$646 Vol.
1%
21°C
$2,069 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,395 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$521 Vol.
1%
24°C
$1,013 Vol.
2%
25°C
$408 Vol.
2%
26°C or higher
$803 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on April 18, with 96.8% implied probability, reflecting strong alignment across forecast models from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international sources like AccuWeather and Weather.com projecting daytime highs of 29–30°C. This positioning stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge over central Mexico fostering clear skies and radiative heating during the late dry season, where April climatological averages already hover near 26°C—exceeded in 80% of historical observations. Recent observational data shows warming trends, with April 16 highs around 23°C amid partly cloudy conditions giving way to sunnier outlooks. Realistic challenges include incoming Pacific moisture triggering heavier chubascos (5–25 mm showers) or unforecast northerly winds increasing cloud cover, potentially capping peaks below 26°C; monitor SMN's 96-hour updates for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 16, 2026, 1:53 AM ET
Volumen
$9,013Enddatum
18. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 16, 2026, 1:53 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on April 18, with 96.8% implied probability, reflecting strong alignment across forecast models from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international sources like AccuWeather and Weather.com projecting daytime highs of 29–30°C. This positioning stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge over central Mexico fostering clear skies and radiative heating during the late dry season, where April climatological averages already hover near 26°C—exceeded in 80% of historical observations. Recent observational data shows warming trends, with April 16 highs around 23°C amid partly cloudy conditions giving way to sunnier outlooks. Realistic challenges include incoming Pacific moisture triggering heavier chubascos (5–25 mm showers) or unforecast northerly winds increasing cloud cover, potentially capping peaks below 26°C; monitor SMN's 96-hour updates for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$9,013Enddatum
18. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 16, 2026, 1:53 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on April 18, with 96.8% implied probability, reflecting strong alignment across forecast models from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international sources like AccuWeather and Weather.com projecting daytime highs of 29–30°C. This positioning stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge over central Mexico fostering clear skies and radiative heating during the late dry season, where April climatological averages already hover near 26°C—exceeded in 80% of historical observations. Recent observational data shows warming trends, with April 16 highs around 23°C amid partly cloudy conditions giving way to sunnier outlooks. Realistic challenges include incoming Pacific moisture triggering heavier chubascos (5–25 mm showers) or unforecast northerly winds increasing cloud cover, potentially capping peaks below 26°C; monitor SMN's 96-hour updates for refinements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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