Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.4% implied probability for Moscow's highest temperature reaching 11°C or higher on April 3, driven by consistent forecast model outputs from Gismeteo and aligned ECMWF/GFS runs projecting daytime peaks of 13–15°C under cloudy but mostly dry conditions with light northwest winds. Morning observations at official stations already hit +8°C, supporting strong diurnal heating as humidity falls from 80% to 40% amid stable high pressure. This above-normal pattern stems from zonal upper-air steering ushering mild Atlantic air, extending recent spring warmth after March records. Realistic challenges include unexpected persistent overcast suppressing insolation or unforecast showers, though model agreement remains robust with hourly updates through evening resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Moscow on April 3?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 3?
11°C or higher 98.4%
10°C 1.6%
9°C <1%
8°C <1%
$23,128 Vol.
$23,128 Vol.
3. Apr. 2026
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C or higher
98%
11°C or higher 98.4%
10°C 1.6%
9°C <1%
8°C <1%
$23,128 Vol.
$23,128 Vol.
3. Apr. 2026
8°C
$1,956 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,627 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,843 Vol.
2%
11°C or higher
$1,775 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.4% implied probability for Moscow's highest temperature reaching 11°C or higher on April 3, driven by consistent forecast model outputs from Gismeteo and aligned ECMWF/GFS runs projecting daytime peaks of 13–15°C under cloudy but mostly dry conditions with light northwest winds. Morning observations at official stations already hit +8°C, supporting strong diurnal heating as humidity falls from 80% to 40% amid stable high pressure. This above-normal pattern stems from zonal upper-air steering ushering mild Atlantic air, extending recent spring warmth after March records. Realistic challenges include unexpected persistent overcast suppressing insolation or unforecast showers, though model agreement remains robust with hourly updates through evening resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volumen
$23,128Enddatum
3. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.4% implied probability for Moscow's highest temperature reaching 11°C or higher on April 3, driven by consistent forecast model outputs from Gismeteo and aligned ECMWF/GFS runs projecting daytime peaks of 13–15°C under cloudy but mostly dry conditions with light northwest winds. Morning observations at official stations already hit +8°C, supporting strong diurnal heating as humidity falls from 80% to 40% amid stable high pressure. This above-normal pattern stems from zonal upper-air steering ushering mild Atlantic air, extending recent spring warmth after March records. Realistic challenges include unexpected persistent overcast suppressing insolation or unforecast showers, though model agreement remains robust with hourly updates through evening resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$23,128Enddatum
3. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.4% implied probability for Moscow's highest temperature reaching 11°C or higher on April 3, driven by consistent forecast model outputs from Gismeteo and aligned ECMWF/GFS runs projecting daytime peaks of 13–15°C under cloudy but mostly dry conditions with light northwest winds. Morning observations at official stations already hit +8°C, supporting strong diurnal heating as humidity falls from 80% to 40% amid stable high pressure. This above-normal pattern stems from zonal upper-air steering ushering mild Atlantic air, extending recent spring warmth after March records. Realistic challenges include unexpected persistent overcast suppressing insolation or unforecast showers, though model agreement remains robust with hourly updates through evening resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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