Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 61.5% implied probability to a 16°C high in Shanghai on April 3, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and China Meteorological Administration models, which converge on daytime highs of 16–17°C amid a frontal system ushering moderate rain and southeasterly winds at 16–24 km/h. Thick cloud cover and 80–100% precipitation probabilities will sharply limit solar insolation, capping heating well below early April seasonal norms of 17–18°C and today's observed 21°C peak. While lighter rain could nudge toward 17–18°C, new model runs overnight and Pudong Airport observations (resolving source via Wunderground ZSPD) will sharpen resolution before close.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 3?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 3?
16°C 62%
17°C 27%
18°C 9%
19°C 2.8%
$108,290 Vol.
$108,290 Vol.
16°C
62%
17°C
27%
18°C
9%
19°C
3%
20°C or higher
1%
16°C 62%
17°C 27%
18°C 9%
19°C 2.8%
$108,290 Vol.
$108,290 Vol.
16°C
62%
17°C
27%
18°C
9%
19°C
3%
20°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 29, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 61.5% implied probability to a 16°C high in Shanghai on April 3, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and China Meteorological Administration models, which converge on daytime highs of 16–17°C amid a frontal system ushering moderate rain and southeasterly winds at 16–24 km/h. Thick cloud cover and 80–100% precipitation probabilities will sharply limit solar insolation, capping heating well below early April seasonal norms of 17–18°C and today's observed 21°C peak. While lighter rain could nudge toward 17–18°C, new model runs overnight and Pudong Airport observations (resolving source via Wunderground ZSPD) will sharpen resolution before close.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen