Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 21°C at 38% implied probability edging 22°C at 29%, reflects the latest consensus from China Meteorological Administration forecasts and GFS/ECMWF ensembles projecting Shanghai Pudong International Airport's high around 20-22°C on April 4 amid multi-cloud conditions and northwest winds. Recent developments include April 2's 23°C peak followed by April 3 rains cooling the region, with northerly flow introducing cooler air advection while urban heat island effects and partial clearing could push toward 22°C. Differentiating factors hinge on cloud persistence versus solar insolation timing and exact wind speeds (3-4 levels per CMA), introducing uncertainty typical of spring East Asian variability above the 18-20°C early-April climatology. Final hourly model updates expected today.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 4?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 4?
21°C 42%
22°C 25%
20°C 14%
23°C 14%
$61,205 Vol.
$61,205 Vol.
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
5%
20°C
14%
21°C
42%
22°C
25%
23°C
14%
24°C or higher
7%
21°C 42%
22°C 25%
20°C 14%
23°C 14%
$61,205 Vol.
$61,205 Vol.
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
5%
20°C
14%
21°C
42%
22°C
25%
23°C
14%
24°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 21°C at 38% implied probability edging 22°C at 29%, reflects the latest consensus from China Meteorological Administration forecasts and GFS/ECMWF ensembles projecting Shanghai Pudong International Airport's high around 20-22°C on April 4 amid multi-cloud conditions and northwest winds. Recent developments include April 2's 23°C peak followed by April 3 rains cooling the region, with northerly flow introducing cooler air advection while urban heat island effects and partial clearing could push toward 22°C. Differentiating factors hinge on cloud persistence versus solar insolation timing and exact wind speeds (3-4 levels per CMA), introducing uncertainty typical of spring East Asian variability above the 18-20°C early-April climatology. Final hourly model updates expected today.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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