Traders assign the highest probabilities to 82–85°F highs for July 5 in New York City because official National Weather Service and model guidance show moderating temperatures after the July 4 peak heat wave. A weakening ridge and increasing moisture will support scattered showers and thunderstorms, limiting full insolation and capping afternoon maxima near 89°F with a 40% rain chance. Sea-breeze circulation off the Atlantic and partial cloud cover further suppress readings, while ensemble spreads keep the most likely outcomes clustered in the low-to-mid 80s. Higher bins above 88°F carry low odds given the expected convective cooling and timing of any frontal passage, consistent with current short-range forecast consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in NYC on July 5?
Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?
82-83°F 37%
84-85°F 37%
86-87°F 15%
88-89°F 4.1%
NEU
NEU
5. Juli 2026
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
4%
82-83°F
37%
84-85°F
37%
86-87°F
15%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 37%
84-85°F 37%
86-87°F 15%
88-89°F 4.1%
NEU
NEU
5. Juli 2026
73°F or below
$610 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$623 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$374 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$37 Vol.
3%
80-81°F
$196 Vol.
4%
82-83°F
$761 Vol.
37%
84-85°F
$117 Vol.
37%
86-87°F
$58 Vol.
15%
88-89°F
$201 Vol.
4%
90-91°F
$256 Vol.
1%
92°F or higher
$313 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest probabilities to 82–85°F highs for July 5 in New York City because official National Weather Service and model guidance show moderating temperatures after the July 4 peak heat wave. A weakening ridge and increasing moisture will support scattered showers and thunderstorms, limiting full insolation and capping afternoon maxima near 89°F with a 40% rain chance. Sea-breeze circulation off the Atlantic and partial cloud cover further suppress readings, while ensemble spreads keep the most likely outcomes clustered in the low-to-mid 80s. Higher bins above 88°F carry low odds given the expected convective cooling and timing of any frontal passage, consistent with current short-range forecast consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volumen
$3,545Enddatum
5. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest probabilities to 82–85°F highs for July 5 in New York City because official National Weather Service and model guidance show moderating temperatures after the July 4 peak heat wave. A weakening ridge and increasing moisture will support scattered showers and thunderstorms, limiting full insolation and capping afternoon maxima near 89°F with a 40% rain chance. Sea-breeze circulation off the Atlantic and partial cloud cover further suppress readings, while ensemble spreads keep the most likely outcomes clustered in the low-to-mid 80s. Higher bins above 88°F carry low odds given the expected convective cooling and timing of any frontal passage, consistent with current short-range forecast consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,545Enddatum
5. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest probabilities to 82–85°F highs for July 5 in New York City because official National Weather Service and model guidance show moderating temperatures after the July 4 peak heat wave. A weakening ridge and increasing moisture will support scattered showers and thunderstorms, limiting full insolation and capping afternoon maxima near 89°F with a 40% rain chance. Sea-breeze circulation off the Atlantic and partial cloud cover further suppress readings, while ensemble spreads keep the most likely outcomes clustered in the low-to-mid 80s. Higher bins above 88°F carry low odds given the expected convective cooling and timing of any frontal passage, consistent with current short-range forecast consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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