Recent KMA short-range guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a likely daily maximum of 29–31°C for Incheon on August 22 under partly cloudy to overcast skies with scattered showers, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those outcomes. Differentiating factors include the precise timing and coverage of precipitation, which can suppress peak temperatures by 1–2°C through reduced insolation, alongside boundary-layer humidity and light easterly winds that limit evaporative cooling. Historical late-August climatology shows average highs near 28–29°C, but current steering patterns from the North Pacific high keep the region warmer, while model spread in rainfall amounts creates the observed 26–31°C trading range. Updated KMA and global model releases over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.