Recent European model guidance, including ECMWF and Met Office runs, points to a daytime maximum near 30°C in Warsaw on August 10 under mostly clear skies and light southerly flow that favors modest warm-air advection without strong mixing. This consensus underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 30–32°C outcomes. Key differentiating factors include minor variations in boundary-layer moisture, the precise timing of any thin high cloud that could reduce solar heating, and local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C at official measurement sites. With resolution hinging on the single highest hourly reading reported by IMGW, traders weigh the latest 00Z and 12Z model updates against climatological August norms near 24–26°C to gauge upside or downside risks ahead of final observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Warschau am 10. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Warschau am 10. August?
31°C 36%
30°C 30%
32°C 20%
29°C 9%
NEU
NEU
10. Aug. 2026
26°C oder niedriger
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
4%
29°C
9%
30°C
30%
31°C
36%
32°C
20%
33°C
6%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C oder höher
<1%
31°C 36%
30°C 30%
32°C 20%
29°C 9%
NEU
NEU
10. Aug. 2026
26°C oder niedriger
$113 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$174 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$265 Vol.
4%
29°C
$624 Vol.
9%
30°C
$686 Vol.
30%
31°C
$195 Vol.
36%
32°C
$743 Vol.
20%
33°C
$814 Vol.
6%
34°C
$58 Vol.
1%
35°C
$71 Vol.
<1%
36°C oder höher
$135 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European model guidance, including ECMWF and Met Office runs, points to a daytime maximum near 30°C in Warsaw on August 10 under mostly clear skies and light southerly flow that favors modest warm-air advection without strong mixing. This consensus underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 30–32°C outcomes. Key differentiating factors include minor variations in boundary-layer moisture, the precise timing of any thin high cloud that could reduce solar heating, and local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C at official measurement sites. With resolution hinging on the single highest hourly reading reported by IMGW, traders weigh the latest 00Z and 12Z model updates against climatological August norms near 24–26°C to gauge upside or downside risks ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volumen
$3,878Enddatum
10. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European model guidance, including ECMWF and Met Office runs, points to a daytime maximum near 30°C in Warsaw on August 10 under mostly clear skies and light southerly flow that favors modest warm-air advection without strong mixing. This consensus underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 30–32°C outcomes. Key differentiating factors include minor variations in boundary-layer moisture, the precise timing of any thin high cloud that could reduce solar heating, and local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C at official measurement sites. With resolution hinging on the single highest hourly reading reported by IMGW, traders weigh the latest 00Z and 12Z model updates against climatological August norms near 24–26°C to gauge upside or downside risks ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,878Enddatum
10. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent European model guidance, including ECMWF and Met Office runs, points to a daytime maximum near 30°C in Warsaw on August 10 under mostly clear skies and light southerly flow that favors modest warm-air advection without strong mixing. This consensus underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 30–32°C outcomes. Key differentiating factors include minor variations in boundary-layer moisture, the precise timing of any thin high cloud that could reduce solar heating, and local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C at official measurement sites. With resolution hinging on the single highest hourly reading reported by IMGW, traders weigh the latest 00Z and 12Z model updates against climatological August norms near 24–26°C to gauge upside or downside risks ahead of final observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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