Recent military strikes in 2025 severely damaged Iran's key nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving large stockpiles of near-weapons-grade uranium unverified and inaccessible to IAEA inspectors since June 2025. The agency has documented ongoing restrictions on access and lost continuity of knowledge over enriched material. In early September 2026, the IAEA Board referred Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council—the first such action in two decades—while satellite imagery confirmed fresh construction at the fortified Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz. U.S. officials, including President Trump, have publicly warned against activity there and reiterated commitments to prevent weaponization. These factors, combined with diplomatic escalation and Iran's emphasis on reconstruction under heightened scrutiny, underpin trader expectations that no nuclear test will occur before 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
6% Chance
$257,869 Vol.
$257,869 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
6% Chance
$257,869 Vol.
$257,869 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes in 2025 severely damaged Iran's key nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving large stockpiles of near-weapons-grade uranium unverified and inaccessible to IAEA inspectors since June 2025. The agency has documented ongoing restrictions on access and lost continuity of knowledge over enriched material. In early September 2026, the IAEA Board referred Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council—the first such action in two decades—while satellite imagery confirmed fresh construction at the fortified Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz. U.S. officials, including President Trump, have publicly warned against activity there and reiterated commitments to prevent weaponization. These factors, combined with diplomatic escalation and Iran's emphasis on reconstruction under heightened scrutiny, underpin trader expectations that no nuclear test will occur before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$257,869Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes in 2025 severely damaged Iran's key nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving large stockpiles of near-weapons-grade uranium unverified and inaccessible to IAEA inspectors since June 2025. The agency has documented ongoing restrictions on access and lost continuity of knowledge over enriched material. In early September 2026, the IAEA Board referred Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council—the first such action in two decades—while satellite imagery confirmed fresh construction at the fortified Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz. U.S. officials, including President Trump, have publicly warned against activity there and reiterated commitments to prevent weaponization. These factors, combined with diplomatic escalation and Iran's emphasis on reconstruction under heightened scrutiny, underpin trader expectations that no nuclear test will occur before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$257,869Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Recent military strikes in 2025 severely damaged Iran's key nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving large stockpiles of near-weapons-grade uranium unverified and inaccessible to IAEA inspectors since June 2025. The agency has documented ongoing restrictions on access and lost continuity of knowledge over enriched material. In early September 2026, the IAEA Board referred Iran's safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council—the first such action in two decades—while satellite imagery confirmed fresh construction at the fortified Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz. U.S. officials, including President Trump, have publicly warned against activity there and reiterated commitments to prevent weaponization. These factors, combined with diplomatic escalation and Iran's emphasis on reconstruction under heightened scrutiny, underpin trader expectations that no nuclear test will occur before 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen