Russian strategic missile forces conducted drills on April 2 involving camouflaged movements of nuclear-capable RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles in Siberia, signaling ongoing nuclear posturing amid the Ukraine conflict but stopping short of any detonation. The expiration of the New START treaty on February 5 has ended U.S.-Russia nuclear arms limits, raising escalation risks and prompting talks on potential new controls, though Moscow maintains its de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive testing observed since 1990. Plans for 2026 tests of new solid-fuel ICBMs to replace aging Topol-M systems focus on delivery vehicles rather than warheads. No verified preparations for a full nuclear test have emerged, with trader consensus reflecting low near-term probability absent major geopolitical shifts like intensified Western sanctions or battlefield reversals. Upcoming missile exercises at Kapustin Yar could influence sentiment.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$1,344,483 Vol.
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31. Dezember 2026
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$1,344,483 Vol.
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$1,737 Vol.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russian strategic missile forces conducted drills on April 2 involving camouflaged movements of nuclear-capable RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles in Siberia, signaling ongoing nuclear posturing amid the Ukraine conflict but stopping short of any detonation. The expiration of the New START treaty on February 5 has ended U.S.-Russia nuclear arms limits, raising escalation risks and prompting talks on potential new controls, though Moscow maintains its de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive testing observed since 1990. Plans for 2026 tests of new solid-fuel ICBMs to replace aging Topol-M systems focus on delivery vehicles rather than warheads. No verified preparations for a full nuclear test have emerged, with trader consensus reflecting low near-term probability absent major geopolitical shifts like intensified Western sanctions or battlefield reversals. Upcoming missile exercises at Kapustin Yar could influence sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volumen
$1,344,483Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russian strategic missile forces conducted drills on April 2 involving camouflaged movements of nuclear-capable RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles in Siberia, signaling ongoing nuclear posturing amid the Ukraine conflict but stopping short of any detonation. The expiration of the New START treaty on February 5 has ended U.S.-Russia nuclear arms limits, raising escalation risks and prompting talks on potential new controls, though Moscow maintains its de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive testing observed since 1990. Plans for 2026 tests of new solid-fuel ICBMs to replace aging Topol-M systems focus on delivery vehicles rather than warheads. No verified preparations for a full nuclear test have emerged, with trader consensus reflecting low near-term probability absent major geopolitical shifts like intensified Western sanctions or battlefield reversals. Upcoming missile exercises at Kapustin Yar could influence sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,344,483Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian strategic missile forces conducted drills on April 2 involving camouflaged movements of nuclear-capable RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles in Siberia, signaling ongoing nuclear posturing amid the Ukraine conflict but stopping short of any detonation. The expiration of the New START treaty on February 5 has ended U.S.-Russia nuclear arms limits, raising escalation risks and prompting talks on potential new controls, though Moscow maintains its de facto moratorium on nuclear explosive testing observed since 1990. Plans for 2026 tests of new solid-fuel ICBMs to replace aging Topol-M systems focus on delivery vehicles rather than warheads. No verified preparations for a full nuclear test have emerged, with trader consensus reflecting low near-term probability absent major geopolitical shifts like intensified Western sanctions or battlefield reversals. Upcoming missile exercises at Kapustin Yar could influence sentiment.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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