Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on explosive nuclear tests, with its last confirmed detonation in 1990, despite de-ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and stating it would match any U.S. resumption. In early April 2026, Russian forces conducted drills in Siberia with RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of nuclear warheads, signaling readiness amid Ukraine conflict escalation, but no test explosion occurred. February Kremlin denials countered U.S. claims of secret low-yield tests by Russia or China, following New START's expiration and stalled arms talks. Traders weigh rhetorical nuclear saber-rattling against historical restraint and diplomatic off-ramps, with no announced tests ahead.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$1,344,983 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
30. Juni 2026
2%
30. September 2026
7%
31. Dezember 2026
12%
$1,344,983 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
$6,495 Vol.
2%
30. September 2026
$1,737 Vol.
7%
31. Dezember 2026
$12,179 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on explosive nuclear tests, with its last confirmed detonation in 1990, despite de-ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and stating it would match any U.S. resumption. In early April 2026, Russian forces conducted drills in Siberia with RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of nuclear warheads, signaling readiness amid Ukraine conflict escalation, but no test explosion occurred. February Kremlin denials countered U.S. claims of secret low-yield tests by Russia or China, following New START's expiration and stalled arms talks. Traders weigh rhetorical nuclear saber-rattling against historical restraint and diplomatic off-ramps, with no announced tests ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volumen
$1,344,983Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on explosive nuclear tests, with its last confirmed detonation in 1990, despite de-ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and stating it would match any U.S. resumption. In early April 2026, Russian forces conducted drills in Siberia with RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of nuclear warheads, signaling readiness amid Ukraine conflict escalation, but no test explosion occurred. February Kremlin denials countered U.S. claims of secret low-yield tests by Russia or China, following New START's expiration and stalled arms talks. Traders weigh rhetorical nuclear saber-rattling against historical restraint and diplomatic off-ramps, with no announced tests ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,344,983Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on explosive nuclear tests, with its last confirmed detonation in 1990, despite de-ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and stating it would match any U.S. resumption. In early April 2026, Russian forces conducted drills in Siberia with RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of nuclear warheads, signaling readiness amid Ukraine conflict escalation, but no test explosion occurred. February Kremlin denials countered U.S. claims of secret low-yield tests by Russia or China, following New START's expiration and stalled arms talks. Traders weigh rhetorical nuclear saber-rattling against historical restraint and diplomatic off-ramps, with no announced tests ahead.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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